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Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Growth Picks Up in May; Construction Up>
-UK May GDP +0.3% m/m, +0.2% 3m/3m vs 0.0% 3m/3m in April
By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham
London (MNI) - UK economic growth accelerated modestly in the month
of May, lifted in part by a smart rebound in construction activity,
pushing growth into positive territory in the three months to May after
a flat performance in the February to April period.
GDP expanded by 0.3% in April, according to a new series published
on Tuesday by the Office For National Statistics, matching the MNI
median forecast, up from a 0.2% gain in March and no growth in April.
That took growth in the three months to May to 0.2%, in line with
the MNI median, after recording no change in the three months ending in
April.
The acceleration in June leaves growth on track to accelerate in
the second calendar quarter of the year. GDP could fall by as much as
0.9% in June and leave second quarter output on level pegging with the
opening three months of the year. GDP has not fallen by that magnitude
since September of 2012, according to an ONS official.
A 2.9% surge in construction output, the largest rise since April
of 2016, accounted for 0.18 percentage points of growth, powered by a
7.3% jump in private housing repair and maintenance. However,
construction output remained in the red on an annual basis, dropping by
0.3% over the same period of 2017.
The dominant service sector expanded by 0.3% in May, matching the
MNI median forecast, down from an upwardly-revised 0.4% gain in April,
accounting for 0.21 percentage points of total growth.
However, growth accelerated to 0.4% in three months to May, up from
0.2% in the February to April period. Services output expanded by 1.7%
over May of 2017.
Industrial production represented a weak spot in the May data,
dampened by a 4.6% slump in mining and quarrying. The Sullom Voe North
Sea pipeline, which accounts for 12% of U.K. oil production, suffered a
four-day shutdown during the month.
That means production must rise by 3.8% in the month of June, an
increase not recorded since early 1979, to contribute positive to GDP in
the second quarter.
Manufacturing output lifted total production, rising by 0.4% below
the MNI median of a 1.0% month-on-month improvement.
-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.