MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Nov-Jan Wage Growth At 2-Yr High>

-UK Nov-Jan Total Earnings +2.8% 3m/year-ago; Real Earnings Flat

-UK Nov-Jan LFS Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.4% Oct-Dec

-UK Nov-Jan Employment +168,000; employment rate joint-record 75.3%

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - UK total nominal earnings grew by their fastest pace 

in over two years, bringing real earnings out of negative territory, as 

the unemployment rate slipped back to a 42-year low in the three months 

to January. 

     Employment jumped by 168,000 to 32.25 million in the three months 

to January, after an increase of 88,000 in the fourth quarter, well 

above the MNI median forecast of a 85,000 gain. That took the employment 

rate to 75.3%, a joint record high. 

     Joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, fell back to 

4.3% in the three months to January, returning to the lowest rate 

recorded since the three months to May in 1975, from 4.4% in the fourth 

quarter. Analysts polled by MNI predicted an unemployment rate of 4.4% 

in the latest period. 

     The outturn matched the 4.3% jobless rate forecast of Bank of 

England staff for the three months to January, as published in the 

February Quarterly Inflation report. 

     Unemployment increased by 24,000 in the three months to January, to 

1.45 million, even as the inactivity decreased by 136,000 to 8.72 

million, taking the inactivity rate to a joint record-low 21.2% 

     The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee discussed signs of 

a pick up in wage growth at its February meeting, which was corroborated 

in the latest employment data.  

     Total weekly earnings increased by an annual pace of 2.8% in the 

three months to January, the fastest rate since the three months to 

September of 2015, above the MNI median forecast of 2.7%, up from a 

revised 2.7% gain in the fourth quarter. 

     But with inflation touching 3.0% in January, real wages, including 

bonuses, were unchanged in the latest period, the best showing since the 

three months to March of 2017. 

     Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for 

inflation, improved by an annual pace of 2.6% in the latest three 

months, in line with the MNI median, up from 2.5% in the previous 

period. Price-adjusted regular earnings fell by 0.2% over the same 

period a year earlier, the smallest fall since February of 2017, when 

real regular wages were flat. 

     Job vacancies rose by 10,000 over the three months to October to 

816,000, although that's below the record-high vacancy rate of 824,000 

touched at the end of December. 

     The jobless rate fell to 4.3% in the month of January, according to 

experimental data, from 4.4% in December. 

     The more up-to-date claimant count rose by 9,200 in February, 

leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in 

January. 

     The claimant count for January was revised to show a 1,600 decline, 

compared to the 7,200 decline reported last month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

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