MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Q4 Joblessness Up as Wages Stagnate>

-UK Oct-Dec Real Regular Earnings -0.3% 3m/year-ago vs -0.2% Sept-Nov

-UK Oct-Dec Real Total Earnings -0.3% 3m/year-ago vs -0.5% Sept-Nov

-UK Oct-Dec LFS Unemployment Rate 4.4% vs 4.3% Sept-Nov

-UK Oct-Dec Employment +88,000; employment rate 75.2%

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - The UK jobless rate rose for the first time in 

nearly a year, as new entrants to the work force overwhelmed a robust 

rise in employment, while wage growth continued to stagnate. 

     Employment rose by 88,000 to 32.15 million in the three months to 

December, compared to the median MNI forecast of an 180,000 gain, after 

increase of 102,000 in the three months to November. 

     But joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, rose to 

4.4% in the fourth quarter, the first increase since the three months to 

February of 2016, topping the MNI median forecast of 4.3%. 

     The outturn exceeded the 4.3% jobless rate forecast of Bank of 

England staff for the three months to December, as published in the 

February Quarterly Inflation report. 

     The work force expanded by 109,000 in the final quarter of the 

year, swelled by the entrance of 59,000 students, taking the employment 

rate down to 75.2% from a record-high 75.3% in the three months to 

November. 

     Unemployment rose by 46,000 to 1.47 million in the three months to 

December, the largest increase since the three months to February of 

2013. 

     The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee discussed signs of 

a pick up in wage growth at its February meeting, but there was little 

sign of wage acceleration in the final quarter of 2017. 

     Total weekly earnings increased by an annual pace of 2.5%, matching 

the outcome in the three months to November, above the MNI median 

forecast of 2.4%. 

     But with inflation touching 3.0% in December, real wages, including 

bonuses, actually declined by 0.3%, extending the 0.2% fall in the three 

months to November. 

     Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for 

inflation, also improved by an annual pace of 2.5% in the fourth 

quarter, exceeding the MNI median of a 2.4% gain, up from 2.3% in the 

previous period.  

     Price-adjusted regular earnings fell by 0.3% over the same period a 

year earlier, a shallower decline than the 0.5% fall recorded in the 

three months to November. 

     The jobless rate rose to 4.4% in the month of December, according 

to experimental data, from 4.3% in November. 

     The more up-to-date claimant count fell by 7,200 in January, 

leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.3%, down from 2.4% in 

December.  

     The claimant count for December was revised to show a 6,200 rise, 

compared to the 8,600 gain reported last month. 

     Over the fourth quarter, the number of workers from the European 

Union rose by 101,000 over the same period of 2017, the smallest annual 

rise since the three months to September of 2013. 

     The number of EU workers actually fell modestly in the fourth 

quarter, compared to the three months to November, the first fall in a 

year, however, the data are not adjusted for seasonality. 

     In a separate release on Wednesday, UK productivity increased by 

0.8% in the final quarter of 2017, extending a 0.9% gain in the third 

quarter. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

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