MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Sep-Nov Employment Soars; Wages Rise>

-UK Sep-Nov Employment +141,000; unemployment rate down to 4.0%

-UK Sep-Nov Total Earnings +3.4% 3m/year-ago vs +3.3% Aug-Oct

-UK Sep-Nov Real Total Earnings +1.2%, highest since 3m to Nov 2016

By Laurie Laird and Jai Lakhani

     London (MNI) - UK earnings growth continued to accelerate in the 

three months to November, as employment growth soared and the 

unemployment rate ticked down unexpectedly.  

     Employment rose by 141,000 to 32,53 million, after an increase 

of 79,000 in the three months to October, above analysts' median 

forecast of a 85,000 gain. 

     That took the employment rate to a record-high 75.8%, up from 

75.7% in the three months to October.

     However, unemployment rose by 8,000 to 1.37 million, even as 

inactivity fell by 100,000 to 8.65 million, leaving the inactivity rate 

at a joint record low of 21.0%. 

     Joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, declined to 

4.0% in the three months to November, below analysts' forecasts, from 

4.1% in the previous three months. 

     The outturn also fell below the 4.0% jobless rate forecast of Bank 

of England staff, as published in the November Quarterly Inflation 

report. 

     The prolonged spell of employment creation has, at last, translated 

into a sustained acceleration in wage growth. Total weekly earnings 

increased by an annual pace of 3.4% in the three months to October, the 

fastest rate since the three months to July of 2008, above the concensus 

forecast of 3.3%, up from a 3.0% gain in the previous three months. 

     With inflation falling to an annual rate of 2.3% in November, real 

wages, including bonuses, rose by 1.2% in the latest period, up from 

1.1% previously, and the fastest growth in three years. With the annual 

rate of CPI slipping further to 2.1% in December, real wages 

could continue to edge higher in months to come, even if nominal wages remain 

static.

However, the upturn in nominal wages, long expected by the Bank 

may have reached its apex, according minutes of the December Monetary 

Policy Committee meeting.  Members acknowledged that the acceleration in 

wage growth over the three months to October exceeded their expectations 

but that "some of the recent strength in pay growth might prove 

transitory." 

     Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for 

inflation, improved by an annual pace of 3.3% in the latest three-month 

period, above the concensus forecast of a 3.2% 

gain, unchanged from the previous period. 

     Price-adjusted regular earnings rose by 1.1% over the same period a 

year earlier, up from 1.0% in the three months to October. 

     However, job vacancies increased by 10,000 to a joint-record-high 

of 853,000, which could provide a degree of support to wage growth in 

some sectors. 

     The jobless rate fell to 3.8% in the month of November, 

according to experimental data, the lowest since records began in 1992, 

from 4.1% in October. 

     The more up-to-date claimant count rose by 20,800 in December, 

leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.8%, unchanged from 

November. 

     The claimant count for November was revised to show a 24,800 rise, 

compared to the 21,900 increase reported last month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]