MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US December Trade Gap Widened To $59.8b>

--Census Goods Gap $80.4b Vs $79.5b Advance Estimate

By Kevin Kastner and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The U.S. international trade gap widened to 

$59.8 billion in December from $50.3 billion, a wider gap than both the 

$57.2 billion deficit expected by an MNI survey and the $57.9 billion 

expected by the Bloomberg consensus, data released by the Commerce 

Department Wednesday morning showed.

     The December gap was the largest since October 2008 and the 2018 

total gap, at $621.0 billion after $552.3 billion in 2017, was the 

largest since 2008, at the start of the last recession.

     The unadjusted trade gap actually narrowed in December to $73.8 

billion from $74.8 billion in November, so seasonal adjustment factors 

accounted for much of wider headline December gap. 

--CENSUS GAP REVISED SLIGHTLY WIDER

     The revised Census goods gap reported Wednesday was slightly wider 

than the advance estimate of $79.5 billion, coming in at $80.4 billion 

after $71.4 billion in November. The advance estimate was used to 

calculate the initial fourth quarter GDP estimate, so a revision to a 

wider net export gap is possible. 

     The overall BOP goods gap widened to $81.5 billion from $72.6 

billion in November, while the services surplus narrowed to $21.8 

billion. 

     The petroleum gap widened to $1.3 billion in December from $0.8 

billion in November, while the nonpetroleum goods gap widened to $79.1 

billion from $70.7 billion. 

--BILATERAL TRADE GAPS GENERALLY MIXED

     The unadjusted bilateral trade gap with China narrowed to $36.8 

billion in December from $37.9 billion in November. At the same time, 

the gap with the EU remained at $15.1 billion in December, the same as 

in November, after rounding. 

     However, the 2018 gaps with both China and the EU were the highest 

on record. 

     The gap with Canada widened to in December to $1.4 billion from 

$0.7 billion in November, while the gap with Mexico widened to $7.7 

billion from $6.7 billion. 

--EXPORTS FALL, IMPORTS RISE

     Exports fell in December, led by a $2.2 billion decline in 

industrial supplies and a $1.7 billion drop in capital goods.  

     Imports rose solidly in December, with a $2.7 billion gain in 

capital goods (particularly computer accessories) and a $2.4 billion 

gain in consumer goods (led by household appliances). 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]