MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 12,000 To 232,000>

--Initial Claims 4-Week Avg Down 500 To 240,500, Could Fall Next Week

--August 12 Claims Level -2,000 From 234,000 in July 15 Survey Week

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment 

benefits fell by 12,000 to 232,000 in the August 12 employment survey 

week, below the 240,000 level expected and following no revision to the 

244,000 claims level in the previous week, data released by the Labor 

Department Thursday showed. 

     Claims were at a level of 234,000 in the July 15 employment survey 

week, so there was little change between mid-July and mid-August and no 

clear impact on August payrolls. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, fell for the third straight week. 

The average fell by 500 to 240,500 in the August 12 week, below the 

average of 244,000 in the July 15 employment survey week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will fall by an additional 3,250 as the 245,000 level in the 

July 22 week rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 1.7%, or 

3,662, in unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted claims fell 

by 13,891 to 198,033. The current week's level was well below the 

219,570 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 3,000 to 1.953 million in 

the August 5 week, while the four-week moving average for continuing 

claims fell by 6,000 to 1.960 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4% in the August 5 week for the 18th straight week. The current week's 

rate is down from 1.6% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]