MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 15k; PPI +0.4%>

--PPI Ex. Food, Energy +0.4%; Ex. Food, Energy, Trade +0.2%

--PPI +2.6% Y/Y Vs +2.4% In Aug; Ex Food, Energy +2.2% Vs +2.0% 

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 15,000 to 243,000 in the October 7 week, below the 252,000 level 

expected and very close to pre-hurricane levels, data released by the 

Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     Also released at the same time, final demand PPI rose 0.4% in 

September, as expected, but excluding food and energy prices were up 

0.4%, above the 0.2% gain expected due to a 0.8% jump in trade services. 

     Energy prices were up 3.4% in the month, with a 10.9% jump in 

gasoline prices and a 12.1% rise in jet fuel prices being the key 

factors. Food prices were flat. 

     The core rate the BLS prefers, excluding the change in trade 

services as well as food and energy, was up 0.2% in September. 

     The year/year rates for these measures indicated some acceleration. 

Overall PPI was up 2.6% year/year in September after a 2.4% year/year 

rise in August. At the same time, the year/year rate for PPI excluding 

food and energy rose to 2.2% from 2.0% in August and the year/year rate 

for PPI excluding food, energy and trade services rose to 2.1% from 

1.9%. 

     BLS said that the hurricanes did not impact data collection or 

estimation for PPI. BLS senior analyst Scott Sager told Market News 

International during the data "lockup" prior to publication that outside 

of energy prices, there was not clear hurricane impact on the data. He 

noted that citrus prices could be impacted in the coming months due to 

the hurricane impact in Florida. 

     Unadjusted claim filings in Florida fell by 1,343, while claims 

were down 210 in Puerto Rico and up 100 in the Virgin Islands, which was 

estimated. While the level of claims remains elevated in those areas, it 

appears initial filings have started to taper off. 

     Claims data were also estimated in South Carolina and Virginia. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, fell by 9,500 to 257,500 in the 

October 7 week, as the 281,000 level in the September 9 week rolled out 

of the calculation. The average could decline further next week, as the 

260,000 level in the September 16 week will drop out. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 18.1%, or 

37,118, in unadjusted claims. Instead, unadjusted claims rose by 23,384 

to 228,046. The current week's level was down from the 238,581 level in 

the comparable week a year ago. 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 31,000 to 1.889 million in 

the September 30 week, the lowest level since the December 29, 1973 

week. As a result, the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate 

declined to 1.3% after posting at 1.4% every week since the April 8 

week. The current week's rate is down from 1.5% in the same week a year 

earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]