MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 4,000 To 226,000>

--Import Prices +0.4%; Ex Fuels +0.5%; Ex-Petro +0.5%

--March 3 Week Jobless Claims Revised Down 1k To 231,000

--Continuing claims Rose 4k To 1.88m In March 3 week

By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 4,000 to 226,000 in the March 10 week, slightly below the 

228,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, data released by 

the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, which tends to be 

a better measure of the underlying trend of the data, fell by 750 to 

221,500 in the March 10 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will rise by 1,500 as the low 220,000 level in the February 17 

week rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 7.5%, or 

17,011, in unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted claims 

fell by 20,922 (9.3%) to 204,591. The current week's level remains below 

the 222,227 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE

     The level of continuing claims rose by 4,000 to 1.879 million in 

the March 3 week. Despite the increase, this level is still in line with 

the recent trend and far below the 2.025 million seen in the comparable 

week last year. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.3% 

in the March 3 week. The current week's rate is down from 1.5% in the 

same week a year earlier.

     The only states where claims were estimated were Maine and 

Colorado. However, the claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands 

and Puerto Rico have still not returned to normal.   

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

--IMPORTS RISE, FUELS FALL

     Also released on Thursday, the BLS reported that import prices rose 

0.4%, rising for the seventh consecutive month in February, with 

increases in all categories except fuels and lubricants and nonmetals 

related to durable goods. Fuel imports posted the first monthly decrease 

since July when the index fell 1.0%. 

     Overall fuel prices fell 0.6%, much lower than the series of gains 

in the past few months, and lower than the 3.2% seen in January. 

Petroleum prices fell 0.5%, with an even larger 3.0% decline in natural 

gas prices. Crude also fell 1.5% in the month. 

     However, despite these declines in fuels, import prices were up 

0.5% excluding petroleum and were up 0.5% excluding all fuels. There was 

strength across the board in February, with foods, feeds, and beverages 

rising 1.1%, making it the largest increase since September. Capital 

goods rose 0.6% in the month which was the largest increase since April 

2008 when it rose 0.9%. Autos were also up in the month and consumer 

goods, excluding autos rose 0.5%, the highest percentage increase since 

January 2014. 

     Overall import prices were up 3.5% year/year, while prices 

excluding fuels were up 2.1% year/year and prices excluding petroleum 

were up 2.1% year/year, which indicates that despite the declines this 

month, energy prices were still leading the rise for imported inflation. 

--PRICES UP IN REGIONS

     By region, prices for imports from most industrialized countries 

were higher, with the one exception being from Mexico, which declined by 

0.5% in February. However, Canada did see a soft 0.2% gain, smaller than 

the previous 1.4% increase. 

     Total export prices rose 0.2% in February as agricultural export 

prices rose 0.6%. Export prices excluding agriculture saw a 0.2% 

increase. Export prices were up 3.3% from a year earlier and were up 

3.6% excluding agriculture. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]