MNI DATA ANALYSIS:US Jobless Claims Rise 10,000 In Nov 11 Week>

--Four-Week Moving Average +6,500 To 237,750 After Six Straight Drops

--Import Prices Up 0.2% in Oct, Also Up 0.2% Ex. Fuels

--Import Prices Up 2.5% Y/Y; Ex-Fuels Up 1.4% Y/Y, High Since March 2012

By Kevin Kastner 

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 10,000 to 249,000 in the November 11 week, well ahead of the 

235,000 level expected, while the four-week average rose for the first 

time since late September after hitting a 44-year low in the previous 

week, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 6,500 to 237,750 in the 

November 11 week as the recent-low 223,000 level in the October 14 week 

rolled out of the equation. This is still close to the decades-low level 

in the previous week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will rose by 3,750 as the 234,000 level in the October 21 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Also released Thursday, U.S. import prices rose by 0.2% in October 

on a 1.4% gain in fuel prices as well as combined 0.2% gain in the other 

components, according to data released by the BLS. 

     Petroleum prices rose 1.7% in October, but natural gas prices fell 

by 6.7%. Import prices rose 0.1% excluding petroleum. 

     Overall import prices were up 2.5% year/year, while prices 

excluding fuels were up 1.4% year/year, the largest 12-month gain since 

a 2.0% rise in March 2012. Prices excluding just petroleum were also up 

1.4% year/year, indicating that energy prices were a key driver of 

imported inflation. 

     The Labor Department reported that backlogged claims filings in 

Puerto Rico continued to be processed, while claims in the Virgin 

Islands were still "severely disrupted." Unadjusted claims in Puerto 

Rico totalled 6,565 in the current week after 8,281 in the previous 

week. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 7.4%, or 

17,941, in unadjusted claims in the current week. Instead, unadjusted 

claim fell by 9,018 to 233,060, so the current week's level was actually 

above the 223,750 level a year ago. The timing of Veteran's Day could 

account for some of this week's year/year rise. 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 44,000 to 1.860 million in 

the November 4 week, the lowest level since the December 29, 1973 week, 

when it was 1.805 million. 

     Unadjusted continuing claims fell by 15,835 to 1.614 million in the 

week, still well below the 1.741 million level a year earlier. The 

four-week moving average for continuing claims fell by 9,000 to 1.887 

million, the lowest since the January 12, 1974 week, when it was 1.881 

million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.3% in 

the November 4 week from 1.4% in the previous week. The current week's 

rate is down from 1.5% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     The 0.2% rise in import prices outside of fuels was the result of a 

sharp 0.9% rise in industrial supplies excluding fuels and a small 

increase in capital goods prices that offset declines in prices of 

foods, autos, and consumer goods. 

     Excluding both fuels and feed, import prices were up 0.2%. The 

year-over-year rate of increase for this category was 1.3%. 

     By region, prices for imports from Canada and the EU were higher, 

offset by declines from Mexico and Japan. Prices from China were flat. 

     Total export prices held steady in October as agricultural export 

prices rose 1.9%, but were offset by a combined 0.3% decline in the 

other components. Export prices were rose 2.7% from a year earlier and 

were up 2.5% year/year excluding agricultural products. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]