MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 10,000 To 244,000>

--Initial Claims 4-Week Avg Steady At 244,000, Could Fall Next Week

--Durable Good Orders Surge 6.5% in June; Only +0.2% Ex Transportation

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment 

benefits rose by 10,000 to 244,000 in the July 22 week, following a 

small upward revision to the claims level in the previous week, data 

released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     In other data released Thursday, the value of U.S. durable goods 

new orders surged 6.5% in June, well ahead of expectations for a 4.0% 

gain, as transportation orders jumped 19.0%. However, nontransportation 

orders posted a 0.2% gain, smaller than the 0.4% increase expected. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, held steady at 244,000 in the July 

22 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will fall by 1,500 as the 250,000 level in the July 1 week rolls 

out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 18.4%, or 

47,440 in unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted claims fell 

by only 37,987 to 219,776. The current week's level was well below the 

231,925 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 13,000 to 1.964 million in 

the July 15 employment survey week, while the four-week moving average 

for continuing claims rose by 4,750 to 1.964 million. Continuing claims 

were at a level of 1.945 million in the June 17 employment survey week. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4% in the July 15 week for the 15th straight week. The current 

week's rate is down from 1.6% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     For durable goods, the modest rise in new orders excluding 

transportation reflected gains for primary metals, fabricated metals, 

machinery and the "all other durables" category that offset declines for 

computers and electronics and the electrical equipment category. 

     Nondefense aircraft orders rose 131.2% in June, more than 

offsetting a 0.6% decline in motor vehicles orders and a 0.3% decline in 

defense aircraft orders. Transportation orders excluding motor vehicles 

and aircraft rose 7.8%, according to an MNI calculation. 

     Nondefense capital goods new orders rose 21.0%, primarily due to a 

228.7% spike in civilian aircraft orders, but were down 0.1% excluding 

civilian aircraft. 

     Durable goods shipments were flat in June, with nondefense capital 

goods shipments up 0.4% and up 0.2% excluding civilian aircraft 

shipments. 

     Durable goods inventories were up 0.4% in the month, while unfilled 

orders were up 1.3%. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]