MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US October Factory Orders Fall 2.1%>

--Factory Inventories +0.1%; Business Inventories Tracking +0.6%

By Shikha Dave and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of new factory orders fell 2.1% in 

October, slightly lower than the 2.0% decrease expected by analysts in 

an MNI survey, data released by the Commerce Department Thursday morning 

showed. 

     Durable goods orders were revised up slightly to a 4.3% fall from 

the 4.4% decrease reported in the advance estimate. Nondurable goods 

orders rose 0.3% on gains in petroleum and coal, food products, and 

textile products. Nondurable goods new orders are equivalent to 

nondurable goods shipments in this report. 

     Factory orders excluding transportation were up 0.3% in the month 

following a 0.1% gain in September, continuing the string of gains that 

stretches back virtually uninterrupted for most of the past two years. 

Durables orders excluding transportation were revised up to a 0.2% gain 

from the 0.1% increase in the advance report. 

     In addition, unfilled orders were -0.1% in October, showing 

marginally lower demand for manufactured goods. 

--TRANSPORTATION ORDERS FALL

     Transportation orders were down 12.0% in October, revised up 

slightly from the advance estimate. The unlisted transportation 

components were down 1.6% in the month, based on an MNI calculation. 

     Nondefense capital goods new orders fell by 4.1%, however they were 

flat when excluding aircraft. 

--INVENTORIES UP, SHIPMENTS DOWN

     Factory inventories rose by 0.1% in October. In addition to this, 

the Commerce Department's advance report on inventories showed a 0.7% 

gain for wholesale inventories and a 0.9% rise in retail inventories. 

     While these data are eligible for revision, the levels as they 

stand now, combined with the 0.1% increase in factory inventories, would 

result in a 0.6% gain in October business inventories when that report 

is released on December 14, an MNI calculation showed. The revised 

wholesale data for October will be released on December 7 and could 

alter this projection. 

     Overall factory shipments were down 0.1% in the month on a 0.5% 

decrease for durable goods shipments, offset by a 0.3% rise in 

nondurable shipments. Nondefense capital goods shipments fell by 2.5%, 

but were up 0.3% after excluding the civilian aircraft component. 

     Given the mix of inventories and shipments reported Friday, the 

inventory-to-shipments ratio was unchanged at 1.34 from September. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]