MNI DATA FORECASTS: UK Q3 GDP Data, Second Estimate

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 17:14 GMT Nov 20/12:14 EST Nov 20

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK third quarter growth came in better than expected when

published last month, posting 0.1pp higher than the market's 0.3% q/q consensus

expectation, and on Thursday we will be given the updated, expenditure breakdown

of the numbers.

     Chances of any meaningful revisions have been judged as minimal, with

analysts unanimous in expecting no change to the preliminary figures published

last month. That is, for growth of 0.4% q/q and 1.5% y/y.     

---------------------------------------------

                          2017 Q3     2017 Q3

                       Second GDP  Second GDP

                         Estimate    Estimate

                             rate        rate

                            % Q/Q       % Y/Y

Date Out                   23-Nov      23-Nov

Median                        0.4         1.5

Forecast High                 0.4         1.5

Forecast Low                  0.4         1.5

Standard Deviation            0.0         0.0

Count                          11           8

Prior                         0.4         1.5

Barclays                      0.4         1.5

Berenberg                     0.4         N/A

Capital Economics             0.4         1.5

Commerzbank                   0.4         1.5

Daiwa Capital Markets         0.4         1.5

Investec                      0.4         1.5

Lloyds TSB                    0.4         1.5

Morgan Stanley                0.4         N/A

Oxford Economics              0.4         1.5

Pantheon                      0.4         N/A

RBC                           0.4         1.5

     Since the figures published last month, two of the key components of UK GDP

growth have been subject to change -- although such was the magnitude and

direction of these changes that the overall effect on GDP growth will likely

offset each other and come to nothing.

     Industrial production, which was initially thought by the ONS to have grown

1.0% between July and September, was revised up to 1.1% q/q in the short-term

economic indicators data pack released November 10. 

     Offsetting this was a greater than expected slide in construction output.

Originally, a 0.7% slide was recorded but this was upgraded to a 0.9% q/q fall. 

     With these two sectors likely cancelling each other out attention will turn

to the more prominent services sector. That said, there has been no data that

has come to light since last month's GDP estimate to suggest a change to the

0.4% q/q outturn is due. 

     Assuming there is no change, attention will then shift to household

spending and business investment, both have been continually earmarked by the

Bank of England as drivers of growth - more specifically, that the latter should

pick up the slack generated from the former as consumer incomes continue to feel

the pinch from higher inflation. 

     Q2 saw household spending rise a measly 0.2% q/q, the worst result for

two-and-a-half years. Much of this would have been attributed to poor auto

sales, which were down 14.3% during that same period. 

     On the premise that vehicle sales may not have been as poor in Q3, some

recovery could be on the cards. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]