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Free AccessMNI DATA IMPACT: Canada Mar Job Gain Triples Forecast at 303K
Canada added 303,100 jobs to triple market expectations in March as governments lifted some pandemic restrictions, which have been tightened this month as a third wave of Covid-19 drives up infection rates again.
The unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% from 8.2% in Statistics Canada's report Friday, the lowest since the start of the pandemic. Economists predicted 90,000 net new jobs and unemployment of 8.0%. Job gains were dominated by services such as retailing and recreational services, but may not be sustained as those businesses were also most likely affected by this month's renewed health shutdowns.
"The labor market impact of these new restrictions may be reflected in April Labor Force Survey results," Statistics Canada's report said. "Since the March LFS reference week, restrictions have been tightened in a number of jurisdictions across Canada."
The report showed signs firms have adapted to the pandemic, with total employment coming within 296,000 or 1.5% of the pre-pandemic mark. Labor underutilization, which includes workers who are discouraged from seeking a new job or those on sharply reduced hours, fell 1.9pp to 14.7%, the lowest since the start of the pandemic. Total hours worked, seen by some economists as a better measure of output, rose 2% in March to come within 1.2% of where they were at the start of last year.
"The big message from today's report is that it is now quite clear that prior job losses can be recovered surprisingly quickly when the economy more fully re-opens," BMO chief economist Doug Porter wrote in a research note.
Industry sources have told MNI that while they see more job gains coming this year, a full rebound will be difficult as health rules hamper demand and make it difficult to recruit workers.
While signs of strong Q1 economic growth have led some investors to bet the BOC will taper asset purchases at its April 21 meeting, Governor Tiff Macklem has cautioned job market slack is a big argument against tightening monetary stimulus to keep a lid on inflation. Firms have told MNI there's little pressure on wages even as they seek to bring back workers.
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