MNI DATA IMPACT: Canada Oct. Jobs -1,800 Vs. Forecast +9,000>

By Greg Quinn and Anahita Alinejad

     Ottawa (MNI) - Canadian employment had a small decline in October 

as the biggest drop in goods industries since 2009 was mostly offset by 

gains in services. The unemployment rate was unchanged near a record low 

and wage gains remained strong. 

     Employment fell by 1,800, lagging the MNI median calling for a 

9,000 increase. The weakness followed two months of stronger than 

expected gains including September's 53,700 increase. 

     Manufacturing employment fell by 23,100 and construction by 21,300, 

driving a 40,900 drop across goods industries that was the biggest 

monthly decline since 2009 around Canada's last recession. The 

percentage decline in goods employment, which adjusts better for a 

growing population, fell 1% for the biggest decline since 2016. 

     The combination of factory and construction employment both falling 

in a month is unusual, and doesn't appear to be linked to the labor 

dispute at General Motors.

     The job losses come in an economy the Bank of Canada says will see 

declines in exports in the second half of the year, and suggests the 

resilience policy makers were relying on to avoid cutting interest rates 

may be fading. 

     Full-time employment fell by 16,100 in October, while lower-paying 

part-time jobs gained 14,300, according to Statistics Canada's report 

published Friday from Ottawa. 

     There were still key signs of strength. The unemployment rate held 

at 5.5%, close to May's record low of 5.4% and better than the MNI 

median of 5.6%. Wage growth remained at 4.3% in October from a year ago, 

well above the BOC's 2% target for consumer price inflation. 

     Most of the decline in goods employment was offset by a 39,000 

increase in service industry employment. Financial services climbed 

17,800 on the month and is up 5.5% from a year earlier. 

     The year-over-year gain in hours worked remained at 1.3% in 

October. The figure can be a benchmark of labor's contribution to 

economic growth. 

     In a second report, StatsCan said building permits fell 6.5% in 

September, more than the MNI median decline of 1.5%. 

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1-613-314-9647; greg.quinn@marketnews.com

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