MNI DATA IMPACT: UK Consumer Falters at the Start of Q4>

By Laurie Laird and Irene Prihoda

     LONDON (MNI) - UK retail sales fell sharply in November, raising 

questions over whether consumer spending can continue to prop up the 

wider economy. 

     The following are the key points from retail sales data 

published Thursday by the Office for National Statistics.

     - Retail sales fell by a more-than-expected 0.6% in November, the 

fourth straight month without an increase, the longest stretch of 

weakness since comparable records began in 1996.  

     - Weak retailing activity could raise concerns amongst policy 

makers, as consumer spending has served as the most stable prop to the 

economy while business investment has faltered. However, members of the 

Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee were not aware of the latest 

retail data when considering interest rates earlier this week, according 

to an official.  

     - Retail sales are poised to exert a negative influence on gross 

domestic product in the fourth quarter. Volumes would have to increase 

by 1.5% between November and December for sales to match the level of 

the third quarter. Sales have not increased by such a large magnitude 

since November of 2018.  

     - Despite the volatility of November sales data over the past 

several years, National Statisticians expressed confidence that their 

seasonal adjustment techniques sufficiently capture the vagaries of 

Black Friday promotions and sales volumes. 

     - Household goods sales rose by 1.2% between October and November, 

the only sector to record an increase, boosted by promotional activity. 

The deflator for household goods stores declined by an annual pace of 

0.2% for the second straight month. However, the sales slumped by 4.5% 

on an annual basis, the fifth straight year-on-year fall. 

     - Retail sales rose by just 0.4% on a rolling three-month basis, 

the smallest rise since December of last year and increased by an annual 

rate of 1.0%, the slowest pace since April of 2018.  

     - Internet sales increased by an annual rate of 2.6% in value 

terms, the smallest increase since records began in 2008. That took the 

share of online transactions to 18.7%, the lowest ratio since December 

2018. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]