MNI DATA IMPACT: US Initial Claims Fall 1,000 To 211,000>

--Four-Week Moving Average -4,750 To 220,250, Could Fall Next Week

By Kevin Kastner and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The level of initial claims fell by 1,000 to 

211,000 in the May 18 employment survey week, compared with expectations 

by Bloomberg and MNI for a slight rebound to 215,000. 

     Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released Thursday: 

     - The initial claims data reflect a 3,025 increase in unadjusted 

claims, when seasonal factors had expected a 4,462 increase in the 

current week. The unadjusted state data for the current week show a 

4,228 gain in Ohio, almost doubling the level of claims from the 

previous week. 

     - Initial claims were at a level of 193,000 in the April 13 

employment survey week, a 50-year low, so the comparison with current 

week's level, which was 18,000 higher, suggests only how unstable the 

claims level was in mid-April. A week later, claims had jumped to 

230,000, so a comparison with the April 20 week instead would have shown 

a month/month decline. 

     - The four-week moving average for claims fell by 4,750 to 220,250 

in the May 18 week and would be expected to fall further next week as 

a 230,000 level in the April 27 week rolls out. 

     - Continuing claims rose by 12,000 to 1.676 million in the May 11 

week, lifting the four-week average by 5,500 to 1.674 million. The rate 

of insured unemployment remained at 1.2%, unchanged from last week and 

the year-ago rate. 

     - Both initial and continuing claims, and their four-week averages, 

were below their year-ago levels, returning to that trend in early-May 

after being above their year-ago points for several weeks. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]