MNI DATA IMPACT: US June Durable Orders Up 2.0% On Transport>

--June New Orders Excluding Transportation Jump 1.2%

--Initial Jobless Claims Fall 10K to 206K in July 20 Week

By Kevin Kastner, Brooke Migdon, and Alexandra Kelley

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - June durable goods orders data rose more than 

expected in June, with nondefense aircraft orders rebounding from two 

weak months. 

     Overall durables posted a 2.0% surge, the largest gain since 

August, compared with a 0.8% increase expected by a Bloomberg median and 

by the MNI survey. 

     While June durable goods came in stronger than expected, May 

durable goods were revised down sharply to a 2.3% decline from the 

previous reported 1.3% decline. The net is likely a small positive 

contribution from nonresidential fixed investment on second quarter GDP, 

compared with the drag some analysts expected. 

     Similarly, excluding transportation, new orders were up 1.2% in the 

month, above the 0.2% gain expected in both the Bloomberg and MNI 

surveys. All the major subcategories posted gains in the month. 

     Also released at the same time, initial jobless claims decreased by 

10,000 to 206,000 in the July 20 week, pulling down the four-week 

average by 5,750 to 213,000. Analysts expected a modest gain to 220,000 

in an MNI survey. 

     The average would be expected to drop in the coming week as the 

222,000 in the June 29 week rolls out of the equation. 

     Here are some of the other key takeaways from the data released 

Thursday: 

     - The durable goods orders increase was largely due to a 3.8% jump 

in transportation orders, particularly a 75.5% spike in nondefense 

aircraft orders. Boeing reported a slight increase in orders in June 

after no orders in May. While the June gain was a welcomed rebound, the 

continued shutdown of 737 MAX production foreshadows a decline in 

aircraft orders going forward.  

     - Durables shipments rose by 1.4% and inventories increased by 

0.3%, but unfilled orders dropped by 0.7%.

     - Nondefense capital goods new orders were up 4.8% in June, and 

saw a 1.9% gain excluding aircraft. Nondefense capital goods shipments 

were up 1.5% in the month, while shipments ex. aircraft were up 0.6%. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]