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Canada will likely report a decline of 175,000 jobs for April on Friday, undoing just part of the gains recorded in the prior two months, as some provinces expanded health restrictions in response to the Covid-19 third wave.
Non-essential retail closures in Ontario and Quebec will drive the decline in a report from Statistics Canada due at 830am EST. The economist consensus for April's job loss is smaller than the last major lockdown that triggered a 212,800 decrease in January. Employment rose 562,000 over February and March, bringing it within 296,000 of the pre-pandemic total.
Industry sources have told MNI the economy's resilience will boost growth through this year even amid an inconsistent vaccine rollout. Some economists say job losses could continue in May, though most of those are likely to snap back when the health lockdowns ease.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 7.5% in March to 7.8% in April. Again, that's less of an increase than the 0.7pp decline recorded in March, and well below the January reading of 9.4%.