MNI DATA PREVIEW: Japan Q4 GDP Seen Revised Dn On Weaker Capex

     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's economy likely contracted at a faster than initially

estimated in Q4, with business investment appearing to be weaker than initially

expected, economists forecast in the wake of a key government survey.

     The median forecast by six economists for revised Q4 GDP is -1.7% on

quarter, or an annualized -6.8%, compared with the preliminary estimate of -1.6%

q/q, or an annualized -6.3%. Forecasts ranged from -1.6% to -1.9% q/q, and -6.4%

to -7.5% annualized.

     The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) Q4 GDP data at

0850 JST on March 9 (2350GMT on Sunday, March 8).

     --CAPEX DOWNWARD REVISION

     Capital investment in the quarter is forecast is seen revised down to -4.7%

q/q from the initial reading of -3.7%, with forecasts ranging from -4.0% to

-5.7%, based on the results of the Ministry of Finance's survey released on

Monday.

     Investment by non-financial Japanese firms fell 3.5% y/y in the period, the

first drop in 13 quarters following +7.1% in Q3.

     The MOF survey, based on the demand side, is the key to calculating Q4 GDP

revisions (due March 9). Capex in preliminary GDP, based solely on supply side

data, fell 3.7% on quarter and pushed total domestic output down by 0.6

percentage point.

     Economists expect private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP,

to be -2.8% on quarter from the initial reading of -2.9%. In the preliminary

data released last month, it pushed down the Q3 GDP by 1.6 percentage points.

     The contribution from private-sector inventories to total output is seen

unchanged at +0.1 percentage point.

     Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- are expected

to have made a positive 0.5 percentage point contribution to the total domestic

output, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.

     Economists also expect public investment to be revised to +0.9% on quarter

in Q4 from +1.1%. Forecasts ranged from +0.8% to +1.0%.

     --WEAK Q1 GDP

     Going forward, economists expect Japan's economy to remain weak in Q1,

possibly contract again, weighted by weak exports, production and private

consumption caused by the spread of the coronavirus.

     The average economist forecast for Q1 GDP growth is annualized at +0.33%,

according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 35 economists by the Japan Center

for Economic Research conducted from January 29 to February 5.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$J$$$]