MNI DATA PREVIEW:US April Jobs Seen +190k, Upside Bias To Data

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The median forecast in an MNI survey shows analysts

expect April nonfarm payrolls to rise by 190,000, a smaller increase than the

196,000 rebound in March. However, an upside surprise is very possible given

survey history and previously released data.

     Analysts in the MNI survey also expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3%

after a disappointing 0.1% gain in March, the average workweek to remain at 34.5

hours, and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.8%. The Bloomberg consensus

forecasts are the same as the MNI forecasts.

     Ahead of the release on Friday, we outline important themes for particular

attention.

     - Possibility Of Underestimate To Analysts' Forecast. In the month of

April, analysts have a tendency to underestimate payrolls, having done so in six

of the last ten years by an average of 56,500.

     - Markets See Lower Payrolls Gain Than Analysts. This month, market

estimates are only slightly below analysts' estimates, with payrolls expected to

rise by 188,000. In the last year, both markets and analysts have leaned toward

underestimates, having done so seven times, with five overestimates. Based on

their history, and indications of an upside surprise to payrolls this month,

markets and analysts may be aiming too low.

     - Historical Claims Data Precedes Report. In the April 13 employment survey

week, initial jobless claims reached a historical low of 193,000 the lowest

level since 1969. This points to a possibility for a similarly strong payrolls

number due to a strong negative relationship between initial claims during

survey weeks and headline payrolls, as demonstrated in a recent MNI Analysis

piece.

     - ADP Report Suggests Favorable Private Payrolls. The ADP National

Employment Report, which tracks hiring activity by ADP client companies, posted

a gain of 275,000 jobs in March, hinting that private payrolls may post a robust

gain. However, due to the fact that the ADP data is limited to ADP client

companies, it tends to only move in the same direction as the BLS number, but

does not predict it well, so the BLS number could be much lower.

     - Markets and Analysts Differ Slightly on AHE. Markets are anticipating a

0.2% gain in average hourly earnings, while analysts' forecast is for a slightly

stronger 0.3% rise. With both markets and analysts having overestimated earnings

four times and underestimated five times in the last year, there is no clear

directional bias to either of their expectations this month.

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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