MNI DATA PREVIEW: US Nov Retail Sales Seen +0.5% Vs. Oct +0.3%

By Ryan Hauser

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. retail sales are expected to rise at a higher rate

in November as consumer spending continues to propel the economy despite a

slowdown in global growth.

     Sales are slated to rise 0.5% in November according to the Bloomberg median

in a report due Friday, marking the second straight month of growth after a 0.3%

increase in October. Sales excluding motor vehicles and sales excluding motor

vehicles and gasoline are both expected to mark a 0.4% gain, after smaller

October increases of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

     The key "control" group that excludes autos, gasoline, and building permits

should also reach a "strong" 0.6%, RBC analysts said. Non-store retailers "will

likely do most of the heavy lifting" following strong Thanksgiving weekend

reports, they said.

     Employment gains may also support retail spending, with last week's report

showing the addition of 266,000 jobs and the unemployment rate matching a

50-year low of 3.5%. The Fed cited a strong pace of household spending and solid

job gains as it held interest rates steady on Wednesday. 

     A "surprising" level of labor market resiliency "already poses upside risks

to our near-term growth projections," Deutsche Bank analysts said. However, the

"idiosyncratic effects" of the beginning of the holiday shopping season are

expected to "dent the retail sales print somewhat" according to Morgan Stanley.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MAUPR$,M$U$$$]