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Free AccessMNI Data Survey: CBI, GDP, Current Account and Gfk
By Jai Lakhani
LONDON (MNI) - A light data week in the UK kicks off Monday with the
release of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey. The prior order balance was +7 for
August and the MNI median points to a slight drop in the reading to +4 for
September. The CBI Distributive trades survey is next up on the Thursday. After
an impressive reading in the previous month's sales balance of +29, the MNI
median for September is +17.
September September
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBI Industrial Trends CBI Distributive Trades Survey
Retail Sales Balance Retail Sales Balance
% %
Date Out 24-Sep 27-Sep
Median 4.0 17.0
Forecast High 5.0 20.0
Forecast Low 1.0 13.0
Standard Deviation 1.9 3.5
Count 4 3
Prior 7.0 29.0
Natwest Markets 1.0 17.0
Nomura 3.0 N/A
Oxford Economics 5.0 20.0
Pantheon 5.0 13.0
On Friday, the second estimate of the UK's Q2 GDP is published. The q/q
growth rate is anticipated to come in at 0.4%, whilst the quarterly y/y rate is
at 1.3%. The poll of analysts for both these measures agreed unanimously. The Q2
current account is expected to widen to stg18.9 bn from stg17.7 bn in Q1.
2018 Q2 July July
-----------------------------------------------
Current UK UK
Account Q2 GDP GDP
stg bn Rate Rate
%3M/3M % 3M (Y/Y)
Date Out 28-Sep 28-Sep 28-Sep
Median -18.9 0.4 1.3
Forecast High -17.0 0.4 1.4
Forecast Low -20.0 0.4 1.3
Standard Deviation 0.9 0.0 0.0
Count 10 19 15
Prior -17.7 0.4 1.3
Berenberg N/A 0.4 N/A
BofAML N/A 0.4 1.3
Capital Economics N/A 0.4 1.3
Citi N/A N/A N/A
Credit Suisse N/A 0.4 1.3
Commerzbank -20.0 0.4 N/A
Deka N/A 0.4 1.3
Deutsche Bank N/A 0.4 1.3
HSBC -18.1 N/A 1.3
ING N/A N/A 1.3
Investec -19.3 0.4 1.3
Lloyds TSB -18.5 0.4 1.3
Morgan Stanley N/A 0.4 N/A
Natixis N/A 0.4 1.3
Natwest Markets -18.4 0.4 1.4
Nomura -17.0 0.4 N/A
Oxford Economics -19.5 0.4 1.3
Pantheon -19.5 0.4 1.3
RBC N/A 0.4 1.3
Standard Chartered -18.5 0.4 N/A
Societe Generale -19.4 0.4 N/A
UBS N/A 0.4 1.3
The UK's Gfk consumer sentiment is expected to drop back to -8 for
September after moving up to -7 in August.
September
--------------------------------------
UK
Gfk
Consumer Sentiment
Date Out 28-Sep
Median -8.0
Forecast High -6.0
Forecast Low -10.0
Standard Deviation 1.4
Count 13
Prior -7.0
BofAML -10.0
Capital Economics -6.0
Citi -6.0
Commerzbank -6.0
Deka -8.0
HSBC -8.0
Investec -10.0
Lloyds TSB -6.0
Natwest Markets -8.0
Oxford Economics -8.0
Pantheon -8.0
Societe Generale -8.0
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MABPR$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.