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April 09, 2019 08:39 GMT
MNI DATA SURVEY: China March Economic Data Forecast
BEIJING (MNI) - All figures are y/y percentage changes unless otherwise
specified.
GDP CPI PPI M2 New Loans (CNY Bln) TSF (CNY Bln)
Q1 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median 6.3 2.5 0.4 8.2 1265.0 1900.0
High 6.6 2.8 0.7 8.5 1900.0 2400.0
Low 6.2 1.5 0.2 7.7 1185.0 1000.0
Mean 6.3 2.4 0.4 8.2 1305.8 1823.1
No. 18 22 21 20 20 16
Previous 6.4 1.5 0.1 8.0 885.8 703.0
CEBM 6.3 2.5 0.4 8.2 1900.0 1200.0
CIB Research 6.2 2.5 0.4 8.2 1350.0 2000.0
CICC Sec 6.2 2.1 0.6 8.4 1200.0 1850.0
Everbright Sec 6.4 2.1 0.3 N/A 1350.0 N/A
Galaxy Sec N/A 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Guotai Junan 6.4 2.5 0.4 8.2 1200.0 1900.0
Haitong Sec 6.3 2.5 0.7 8.3 1200.0 1670.0
Huachuang Sec 6.2 2.4 0.4 8.2 1300.0 N/A
Huatai Sec 6.4 2.3 0.4 8.0 1200.0 1700.0
Industrial Sec 6.4 2.5 0.5 8.2 1300.0 2100.0
ING N/A 1.5 0.3 8.0 1185.0 1000.0
Merchant Sec 6.3 2.4 0.4 8.3 1350.0 2100.0
Minsheng Bank 6.3 2.5 0.5 8.2 1250.0 2000.0
Mizuho 6.2 2.6 0.4 8.2 1250.0 1800.0
Moody's N/A 1.7 0.5 8.2 N/A N/A
New Times Sec 6.3 2.7 0.3 7.7 1300.0 1450.0
Peking U Rsrch 6.3 2.4 0.6 8.0 1280.0 N/A
TF Sec 6.3 2.5 0.3 8.2 1250.0 2000.0
Shanghai Sec 6.6 1.9 0.2 8.0 1300.0 N/A
Shenwan Hongyuan N/A 2.5 0.6 8.5 1250.0 1900.0
Sinolink Sec 6.3 2.3 0.5 8.4 1500.0 2100.0
Southwest Sec 6.3 2.5 0.5 8.5 1200.0 2400.0
Trade
Exports Imports Balance Output Investment Retail
Mar Mar ($Bln) Mar Jan-Mar Mar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median 8.4 -1.8 11.3 6.0 6.3 8.3
High 16.0 6.0 43.7 6.6 7.8 8.6
Low -13.6 -13.0 -10.9 5.5 5.9 7.6
Mean 6.8 -1.4 11.0 6.0 6.3 8.2
No. 20 20 15 19 19 19
Previous -20.7 -5.2 4.1 5.3 6.1 8.2
CEBM 12.0 -3.0 N/A 6.5 6.4 8.3
CIB Research 10.0 -2.0 15.2 5.5 6.3 8.6
CICC Sec 4.0 5.0 N/A 6.0 6.2 8.4
Everbright
Sec 12.0 -5.0 N/A 5.9 6.3 8.2
Guotai Junan 12.0 -2.0 11.8 6.1 6.4 8.4
Haitong Sec -4.2 -3.4 -6.3 5.8 7.8 7.8
Huachuang
Sec 8.8 -1.5 12.23 6.0 6.0 8.4
Huatai Sec 0.3 -2.9 0.0 6.0 5.9 8.3
Industrial
Sec 8.0 5.0 -1.0 5.9 6.2 8.3
ING -13.6 -10.3 -10.9 N/A N/A N/A
Merchant Sec 12.1 0.2 15.0 5.6 6.3 8.0
Minsheng
Bank 4.0 0.2 1.0 6.0 6.4 8.5
Mizuho 1.0 -5.0 5.0 6.0 6.2 8.1
New Times
Sec 15.0 -13.0 43.67 6.4 5.9 7.8
Peking U
Rsrch 14.5 2.0 40.0 5.6 6.8 7.6
TF Sec 0.0 5.0 N/A 6.0 6.3 8.1
Shanghai Sec 15.0 0.2 20.0 6.5 6.3 8.6
Shenwan
Hongyuan 16.0 6.0 11.3 6.6 6.0 8.6
Sinolink Sec 6.0 3.0 N/A 5.6 6.0 8.3
Southwest
Sec 3.0 -7.0 8.43 6.0 6.0 8.1
Note: The survey median is compiled solely from the forecasts listed above
and is not intended to represent a market consensus.
March CPI, PPI due for release at 0930 local/0230 GMT April 11.
March trade data is due for release on April 12.
March money supply, bank loans and total social financing expected to be
released between April 10 and April 15. Date and time uncertain at publication
time.
Q1 GDP, March Industrial output, retail sales and YTD fixed-asset
investment will be released at 1000 local/0300 GMT on April 17.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: wanxia.lin@marketnews.com
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 10 8532 5998; email: william.bi@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAQDT$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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