MNI DATA SURVEY: Preliminary UK Nov IHS Markit Services PMI

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - The IHS Markit services PMI raised a few eyebrows last

month, posting a two point increase to 55.6 -- a six-month high -- much to the

surprise of market spectators. 

     The November print will be published on Dec 5 and we will find out if the

strong prevailing conditions extended into November, or whether a return to its

recent, largely underwhelming trend is instead on the cards.

     Highlights of October's survey included a rebound in new orders from its

13m low in September to expand at the fastest pace since May and operating costs

easing to its lowest level since September 2016. But it was not all rosy. Job

growth did slip to a seven-month low and prospects for growth looking forward

did remain fragile.

     A preliminary survey of analysts conducted by MNI yielded a a median

outturn slightly below the October result, 0.5 points lower at 55.1. 

     While the survey excludes firms in the retail sales sector, other

consumer-facing businesses will have had an increasingly difficult time luring

consumers, lacking in confidence and disposable income, to open their wallets. 

     This week, we learned of UK consumer confidence slipping back to the lowest

level since the Brexit vote last summer and that was on top of households

continuing to process the first hike in interest rates in 10 years.  

----------------------------

                         Nov

                    Services

                         PMI

                       Index

Date Out              05-Dec

Median                  55.1

Consensus

Forecast High           55.5

Forecast Low              54

Standard Deviation       0.7

Count                      7

Prior                   55.6

Commerzbank             55.2

Investec                54.6

Nomura                  55.0

Oxford Economics        55.2

RBC                     55.0

Standard Chartered      55.5

UniCredit               53.5

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

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