MNI ASIA OPEN: Chair Powell Tamps Down on Pace of Rate Cuts
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- MNI BRIEF: Powell Says Fed Not In Hurry To Ease Quickly
- MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees A Lot Of Cuts Over Next Year
- MNI FED: Bostic – Don’t Want To Be Overly Confident On Inflation Path
- US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™ - Augmented to 46.6 in September
US
MNI BRIEF: Powell Says Fed Not In Hurry To Ease Quickly
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday a strong economy means the central bank does not have to rush in reducing interest rates. “This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rate quickly,” Powell said during a Q&A hosted by the National Association of Business Economics. “From a base case standpoint, we’re looking at it as a process that will play out over some time, not something that we need to go fast on. "If the economy performs as expected, that would mean two more cuts this year – 50 more (basis points),” he said.
MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees A Lot Of Cuts Over Next Year
U.S. interest rates are "well above" where they need to be over the medium term and are set to fall significantly over the next year or more, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Monday. "If you look at the new inflation numbers, they're coming in relatively pretty close to target. And if you look at the unemployment rate and the job market, we got back to a steady state kind of a sustainable level that's close to what we think of as full employment," he said in a Fox Business interview, also citing "cautionary indicators" on the health of the labor market.
FED: Bostic – Don’t Want To Be Overly Confident On Inflation Path
Bloomberg has run headlines from an interview that Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (’24 voter) gave to Reuters noting that he’s open to a 50bp cut rate if labor data is weak although broader comments appear more in keeping with his comments last week that the Fed isn't in a "mad dash" to neutral. "If the story is that inflation is continuing its drop and the labor market is staying strong, I think we have the luxury of being a bit more patient" with rate cuts. "If, on the other hand, the labor market comes in much weaker, I think that would add urgency to this."
NEWS
MNI BRIEF: Draghi Sees High Inflation, Rates In EU Future
Former ECB President Mario Draghi rejected ideas that future EU monetary policies would bring a return to the Zero Lower Bound at an event in Brussels Monday on his recent EU competitiveness report. "Zero Lower Bound - is it likely or not? I don't think it is likely at all. We will be living in a period of time where if anything we will have a pressure of too high deficits and too high demand and potentially higher inflation rates and higher interest rates."
SECURITY: Netanyahu Warns Of Regime Change In Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued apublic video statementaddressed to the Iranian people, appearing to promise regime change in Iran. The statement comes as multiple reports suggest that a limited IDF ground incursion into Lebanon may be imminent. Netanyahu said: “When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think — everything will be different... Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace."
MNI MIDEAST: Region On Edge Following Killing Of Hezbollah Leader
Wires carrying comments from a spox for the Iranian foreign ministry. Says that Iran will not leave any of "the criminal acts" of Israel unanswered, referring to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on Beirut late last week. The Middle East has been in a state of heightened tensions since the 27 September airstrikes that took out Nasrallah, who had led the Iranian-backed group since his predecessor Abbas al-Musawi was killed in an Israeli airstrike in 1992.
MNI AUSTRIA: Far-Right Secures Top Spot, Focus Turns To Coalition Talks
For the first time, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has come in first in a federal election and could lead the next governing coalition. According to preliminary results, the FPÖ secured 58 out of 183 seats with 29.2% of the vote, an increase of 27 seats from the 2019 election. The conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) of Chancellor Karl Nehammer fell to second place with 52 seats on 26.5% of the vote, representing a loss of 19 seats. Austria's electoral system makes single-party majority gov'ts all but impossible, requiring coalition negotiations after each election. It is Nehammer's party that sits as kingmakers.
CHINA (Bbg): China’s Weak Factory Activity Shows Urgency of Stimulus Push, Bloomberg
China’s factory activity continued to contract while the services sector slowed in September, as policymakers prepared an emergency stimulus blitz to revive an economy facing challenges across the board.
US TSYS
US TSYS: Tsys Near Lows As Chair Powell Rebuts His Own Post FOMC Comments
- Treasuries look to finish near session lows after comments from Chairman Powell at NABE conference taken hawkishly by markets, projected rate cut pricing receding as Powell stressed the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates.
- Dec'24 10Y futures nearly breached initial technical support of 114-07, last Thursday's low, before rebounding 114-11 (-12.5) after Powell ended his session. Curves bear flattened: 2s10s -4.701 at 14.234 vs. -13.208 low after climbing to 19.687 this morning.
- Treasuries traded a narrow band earlier, taking cues from EGBs -- bouncing to top of session range in reaction to ECB Pres Lagarde commenting that the ECB will take into account stronger confidence in the inflation outlook at that gathering.
- Tsys held near top of range after MNI Chicago PMI comes out higher than expected at 46.6 (but still contractionary -- well below 50). The marginal rise was due to two of the five subcomponents improving significantly: Order Backlogs and Employment. Meanwhile, reductions in Supplier Deliveries, New Orders, and Production restricted the upward move.
- Focus turns to tomorrow's flash PMI, JOLTS and ISMs and more Fed speak from Bostic, Barkin and Cook.
OVERNIGHT DATA
US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™ - Augmented to 46.6 in September
The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, rose slightly by 0.5 points to 46.6 in September. The Barometer has now been in a tight range between 45.3-47.4 for four consecutive months. The Barometer has remained in contractionary territory for 24 of the past 25 months. The marginal rise was due to two of the five subcomponents improving significantly: Order Backlogs and Employment. Meanwhile, reductions in Supplier Deliveries, New Orders, and Production restricted the upward move.
US DATA: Regional Fed Mfg Surveys Imply Upside Risk To Tomorrow’s ISM
The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is last of the five regional Fed surveys for September, coming in line after what have been some mixed outturns relative to expectations (see comparison below). Released mid-month, the Empire and Philly surveys showed some improvement with both in positive territory, but that’s given way to a continuation of softer readings across the Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas Fed regions.
- Taken together, the five surveys point to some upside to tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing print (seen at 47.6 in September after 47.2). That’s in contrast to the flash PMI, which whilst now at similar levels to the ISM with 47.0 has seen a more notable loss of momentum recently from 51.6 in June.
- Empire: 11.5 (cons -4.0) after -4.7
- Philly: 1.7 (cons 0.0) after -7.0
- Richmond: -21 (cons -12) after -19
- Kansas: -8 (cons -5) after -3
- Dallas: -9.0 (cons -10.3) after -9.7
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
- Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
- DJIA down 179.42 points (-0.42%) at 42133.93
- S&P E-Mini Future down 8.75 points (-0.15%) at 5781.75
- Nasdaq down 50.3 points (-0.3%) at 18069.04
- US 10-Yr yield is up 5.1 bps at 3.8019%
- US Dec 10-Yr futures are down 15.5/32 at 114-8
- EURUSD down 0.0038 (-0.34%) at 1.1124
- USDJPY up 1.66 (1.17%) at 143.87
- WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $0.15 (0.22%) at $68.33
- Gold is down $30.32 (-1.14%) at $2628.04
- European bourses closing levels:
- EuroStoxx 50 down 67 points (-1.32%) at 5000.45
- FTSE 100 down 83.81 points (-1.01%) at 8236.95
- German DAX down 148.7 points (-0.76%) at 19324.93
- French CAC 40 down 156.04 points (-2%) at 7635.75
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
- 3M10Y +3.371, -83.582 (L: -91.7 / H: -83.392)
- 2Y10Y -4.496, 14.439 (L: 13.208 / H: 19.687)
- 2Y30Y -6.568, 47.689 (L: 46.098 / H: 54.986)
- 5Y30Y -4.688, 55.005 (L: 54.644 / H: 60.181)
- Current futures levels:
- Dec 2-Yr futures down 6.25/32 at 104-3.625 (L: 104-02.875 / H: 104-10.25)
- Dec 5-Yr futures down 12.5/32 at 109-27.5 (L: 109-27 / H: 110-08)
- Dec 10-Yr futures down 15.5/32 at 114-8 (L: 114-07.5 / H: 114-24)
- Dec 30-Yr futures down 23/32 at 124-5 (L: 124-04 / H: 124-28)
- Dec Ultra futures down 27/32 at 133-1 (L: 133-00 / H: 134-01)
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play - RES 4: 116-07 1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3
- RES 3: 116-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 115-31+ 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3
- RES 1: 115-02+/23+ High Sep 19 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 114-09+ @ 1503 ET Sep 30
- SUP 1: 114-07 Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 114-00+ Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: 113-27+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 113-12 Low Sep 3 and a key support
Treasuries continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The move down that started on Sep 11, still appears to be a correction. Note that the contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 114-22+. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards 113-27+, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 115-24+, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
- Dec 24 -0.095 at 95.955
- Mar 25 -0.135 at 96.475
- Jun 25 -0.135 at 96.785
- Sep 25 -0.115 at 96.930
- Red Pack (Dec 25-Sep 26) -0.10 to -0.065
- Green Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) -0.06 to -0.055
- Blue Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) -0.05 to -0.045
- Gold Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) -0.04 to -0.035
SOFR FIXES AND PRIOR SESSION REFERENCE RATES
SOFR Benchmark Settlements:
- 1M +0.00160 to 4.84570 (-0.01312 total last wk)
- 3M -0.00124 to 4.59211 (-0.09790 total last wk)
- 6M -0.00798 to 4.25387 (-0.08954 total last wk)
- 12M -0.00640 to 3.77668 (-0.04841 total last wk)
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.84% (+0.01), volume: $2.077T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.83% (+0.00), volume: $787B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.83% (+0.00), volume: $753B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.83% (+0.00), volume: $94B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.83% (+0.00), volume: $248B
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage continues to climb heading into month/quarter end, latest at $465.638B this afternoon from $436.518B prior. Compares to $239.386B on Monday September 16 2024 -- the lowest level since early May 2021. Number of counterparties at 69 from 59 prior.
PIPELINE
PIPELINE: $1.5B Campbell Soup 2Pt Bond Issuance Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 9/30 $1.15B #Campbell Soup $800M +10Y +103, $350M 30Y +118
- 9/30 $750M #Darden $400M 3Y +80, $350M 5Y +1029/30 $750M Terex 8NC3
- 9/30 $500M *Vakifbank WNG 5.25Y 6.95%
- 9/30 $Benchmark Ecobank Transnational 5Y investor calls
- 9/30 $Benchmark Goodman Industrial 10Y investor calls
- 9/30 $Benchmark Africa Finance Corp 5Y investor calls
EGBS
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bunds Gain On Lagarde Inflation "Confidence"
Gilts underperformed, as Bunds strengthened to start the week.
- Curves bear flattened early on, with German state-level inflation if anything on the dovish side of expectations. But European bonds sold off regardless, which was seen as the result of overly-dovish positioning going into the releases.
- Core EGBs rallied sharply in early afternoon on ECB President Lagarde's commentary that the latest inflation developments "strengthen our confidence" and "we will take that into account" at the October meeting. MNI published an ECB sources piece titled "Chances of October ECB Cut At Least 50-50" (link here).
- The UK curve bear flattened on the day, with Germany's leaning bull flatter as implied October ECB cut pricing touched 92%, compared to 20% at the start of last week.
- Periphery EGB spreads widened modestly as European equities reversed Friday's gains.
- BoE's Greene speaks after the cash close. Tuesday's agenda includes Euro flash HICP (MNI is tracking a 1.7% Y/Y figure), final manufacturing PMIs, and ECB speakers including Nagel, Rehn and de Guindos.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.8bps at 2.068%, 5-Yr is down 0.5bps at 1.947%, 10-Yr is down 1bps at 2.123%, and 30-Yr is down 0.7bps at 2.459%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 4.3bps at 3.983%, 5-Yr is up 3.6bps at 3.86%, 10-Yr is up 2.6bps at 4.003%, and 30-Yr is up 0.9bps at 4.584%.
- Italian BTP spread up 1.1bps at 133bps / Spanish up 1.1bps at 80.3bps.
TUESDAY DATA CALENDAR
Date | ET | Impact | Period | Release | Prior | Consensus | |
01/10/2024 | - | *** | Sep | NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR | -- | -- | (m) |
01/10/2024 | 0855 | ** | 28-Sep | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (month) | 5.2 | -- | % |
01/10/2024 | 0855 | ** | 28-Sep | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (week) | 4.4 | -- | % |
01/10/2024 | 0945 | *** | Sep | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | 47 | 47 | |
01/10/2024 | 1000 | *** | Sep | ISM Man. Employment Index | 46 | -- | |
01/10/2024 | 1000 | *** | Sep | ISM Manufacturing Index | 47.2 | 47.7 | |
01/10/2024 | 1000 | *** | Sep | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 44.6 | -- | |
01/10/2024 | 1000 | *** | Sep | ISM Manufacturing Prices Index | 54 | -- | |
01/10/2024 | 1000 | * | Aug | Construction Spending m/m | -0.3 | 0.1 | % |
01/10/2024 | 1000 | *** | Aug | JOLTS job openings level | 7673 | 7693 | (k) |
01/10/2024 | 1000 | *** | Aug | JOLTS quits rate | 2.1 | -- | % |
01/10/2024 | 1030 | ** | Oct | Dallas Fed services index | -7.7 | -- | |
01/10/2024 | 1130 | * | 04-Oct | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
01/10/2024 | 1130 | ** | Sep | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- |