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MNI DATA SURVEY: UK Apr IOP, May Inflation, Labour, Ret Sales

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 14:27 GMT Jun 8/10:27 EST Jun 8
By Jamie Satchithanantham
     LONDON (MNI) - Kicking off what will be a data-heavy week will be the UK
ONS's April short-term indicators pack.
     After snow and ice laced the country from top to bottom in February and
March, without impacting manufacturing activity according to the ONS, April saw
much better weather.
     Some analysts don't buy the ONS's claim of snow-immunity and believe a
bounce back is on the cards. Manufacturing output is expected to rebound a
robust 0.4% m/m, 3.1% on the year, for a 0.2% rise in monthly IOP.         
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                           Apr         Apr            Apr            Apr
                    Industrial  Industrial  Manufacturing  Manufacturing
                    Production  Production         Output         Output
                         % m/m       % oya          % m/m          % oya
Date Out                11-Jun      11-Jun         11-Jun         11-Jun
Median                     0.2         2.8            0.4            3.1
Forecast High              0.6         3.2            1.0            3.4
Forecast Low              -0.1         2.6            0.2            0.3
Standard Deviation         0.3         0.3            0.4            1.5
Count                        6           4              4              4
Prior                      0.1         2.9           -0.1            2.9
Capital Economics          0.5         3.2            1.0            3.1
Credit Suisse             -0.1         N/A            N/A            N/A
Commerzbank                0.6         N/A            N/A            N/A
Investec                  -0.1         2.6            0.5            3.4
Nomura                     0.1         2.7            0.2            0.3
Oxford Economics           0.2         2.8            0.3            3.1
     Completing the Monday set will be the latest trade figures. Analysts see
the trade balance broadly unchanged at -stg3.3bn, stg0.3bn wider than a month
prior. 
     The global trade in goods deficit, meanwhile, is expected to narrow
slightly, down stg0.4bn to stg12.0bn.  
------------------------------------------
                              Apr      Apr
                            Total  Visible
                    Trade balance    Trade
                           stg bn   stg bn
Date Out                   11-Jun   11-Jun
Median                       -3.3    -12.0
Forecast High                -1.9    -11.2
Forecast Low                 -3.6    -12.8
Standard Deviation            0.9      0.8
Count                           3        4
Prior                        -3.1    -12.3
Capital Economics            -3.6    -12.8
Credit Suisse                 N/A      N/A
Commerzbank                   N/A      N/A
Investec                     -1.9    -11.2
Nomura                        N/A    -11.5
Oxford Economics             -3.3    -12.4
     As is now the case, Tuesday brings about the latest labour market figures,
granting MPs enough time to digest the latest trends before PM's questions a day
later.
     While the April jobless rate is seen unchanged at 4.2%, earnings growth is
seen weakening a touch to 2.5% 3m y/y. This appears to be bonus-driven with
forecasted regular growth unchanged at 2.9%,a slither below the magic
3.0%-threshold.  
---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                            Apr
                           Apr                Apr           ILO
                    Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly  Unemployment
                      Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus          rate
                      3m % YoY           3m % YoY          3m %
Date Out                12-Jun             12-Jun        12-Jun
Median                     2.5                2.9           4.2
Forecast High              2.9                3.1           4.3
Forecast Low               2.5                2.9           4.2
Standard Deviation         0.2                0.1           0.0
Count                        5                  5             6
Prior                      2.6                2.9           4.2
Capital Economics          2.5                2.9           4.2
Credit Suisse              N/A                2.9           4.2
Commerzbank                2.5                N/A           4.3
Investec                   2.6                3.0           4.2
Nomura                     2.5                2.9           4.2
Oxford Economics           2.9                3.1           4.2
     Wednesday sees the release of the inflation numbers for May. Following a
preliminary survey of analysts, the general consensus is for a pick up in
headline inflation, up 0.1pp to 2.5%, likely aided by the month's rise in fuel
prices.
     Core inflation, which strips this out along with food, drinks and tobacco,
is seen moving the same magnitude but in the opposite direction, down to 2.0%. 
     RPI is expected to nudge up to 3.5% in May.      
------------------------------------------------------------
                       May     May       May     May     May
                       CPI     CPI  Core CPI     RPI     RPI
                     % MoM   % YoY     % YoY   % MoM   % YoY
Date Out            13-Jun  13-Jun    13-Jun  13-Jun  13-Jun
Median                 0.3     2.5       2.0     0.5     3.5
Forecast High          0.5     2.6       2.1     0.5     3.5
Forecast Low           0.3     2.3       2.0     0.4     3.3
Standard Deviation     0.1     0.1       0.1     0.1     0.1
Count                    5       5         3       4       4
Prior                  0.4     2.4       2.1     0.5     3.4
Capital Economics      0.3     2.4       2.0     0.5     3.5
Credit Suisse          N/A     2.5       2.1     N/A     N/A
Commerzbank            0.3     N/A       N/A     N/A     N/A
Investec               0.4     2.5       2.0     0.4     3.4
Nomura                 0.3     2.3       N/A     0.4     3.3
Oxford Economics       0.5     2.6       N/A     0.5     3.5
     The increase in Brent crude prices will be more evident in the month's
input PPI data. Analysts expect a 1.9 percentage point pick to 2.3% m/m, for an
annual rate 3.0pp higher at 8.3%. Output PPI expected to increase too, from 2.7%
y/y to 3.0%.     
----------------------------------------------------------------
                          May        May         May         May
                    PPI Input  PPI Input  PPI Output  PPI Output
                        % MoM      % YoY       % MoM       % YoY
Date Out               13-Jun     13-Jun      13-Jun      13-Jun
Median                    2.3        8.3         0.4         3.0
Forecast High             2.6        8.7         0.5         3.1
Forecast Low              0.8        6.8        -0.6         2.0
Standard Deviation        0.8        0.9         0.5         0.5
Count                       4          4           4           4
Prior                     0.4        5.3         0.3         2.7
Capital Economics         2.0        8.0        -0.6         2.0
Credit Suisse             N/A        N/A         N/A         N/A
Commerzbank               N/A        N/A         N/A         N/A
Investec                  2.6        8.7         0.3         2.9
Nomura                    2.5        8.6         0.5         3.1
Oxford Economics          0.8        6.8         0.4         3.0
     Concluding the hard UK data for the week will be retail sales data for May.
The sector was hit hard by the March adverse weather, down 1.1%, but posted a
strong rebound in April (up 1.6%).
     The May data will reveal whether the April bounce back was an isolated
month of increased activity or whether consumers carried some of this momentum
forward into May. 
     Analysts, it appears, don't think that will be the case, with just a modest
0.3% m/m rise pencilled in as of now (total and ex-fuel).        
------------------------------------------------------------
                             May           May           May
                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales
                    Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol
                           % MoM         % YoY         % MoM
Date Out                  14-Jun        14-Jun        14-Jun
Median                       0.3           2.2           0.3
Forecast High                0.6           2.4           0.8
Forecast Low                 0.1           2.0          -0.5
Standard Deviation           0.3           0.2           0.5
Count                          3             3             4
Prior                        1.6           1.4           1.3
Capital Economics            0.1           2.0           N/A
Credit Suisse                N/A           N/A           0.2
Commerzbank                  N/A           N/A           0.4
Investec                     0.6           2.4           0.8
Nomura                       N/A           N/A          -0.5
Oxford Economics             0.3           2.2           N/A
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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