MNI DATA SURVEY: UK Average Weekly Earnings and Unemployment

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - Median analyst estimates for UK average earnings show 3

month year-on-year growth at 2.9% for average weekly earnings that exclude

bonuses, which is slightly up from February's 2.8%, but see the figure including

bonuses growing at 2.7%, which is down from February's 2.8% growth figure. The

reason why this may be the case is, as MNI previously highlighted, the REC

Report on jobs which illustrated continued strength in permanent job hires along

with December's strong bonus month dropping out of the three-month average.  

     The ILO unemployment rate for March is anticipated by analysts as a whole

to remain unchanged from its February 3-month rate of 4.2%. This is despite the

weakness in GDP growth in Q1. Whilst labour market activity tends to lag

weakness in economic activity, the anticipation of Q2 unwinding the weather

effects of Q1 could mean the unemployment rate remains robust at what the Bank

of England believes is the natural rate of unemployment. 

                    Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly  Unemployment

---------------------------------------------------------------

                      Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus          rate

                      3m % YoY           3m % YoY          3m %

Date Out                17-Apr             17-Apr        17-Apr

Median                     2.7                2.9           4.2

Forecast High              2.8                2.9           4.3

Forecast Low               2.6                2.8           4.1

Standard Deviation         0.1                0.0           0.1

Count                        5                  5             7

Prior                      2.8                2.8           4.2

Capital Economics          2.7                2.9           4.2

Credit Suisse              N/A                N/A           4.2

Commerzbank                2.7                N/A           4.2

Investec                   2.8                2.9           4.2

Nomura                     N/A                2.9           4.2

Oxford Economics           2.7                2.8           4.1

UniCredit                  2.6                2.9           4.3

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,MABPR$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]