MNI DATA SURVEY: UK Average Weekly Earnings and Unemployment

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - Median analyst estimates for UK average earnings show 3

month year-on-year growth at 2.9% for average weekly earnings that exclude

bonuses, which is slightly up from February's 2.8%, but see the figure including

bonuses growing at 2.7%, which is down from February's 2.8% growth figure. The

reason why this may be the case is, as MNI previously highlighted, the REC

Report on jobs which highlighted continued strength in permanent job hires along

with December's strong bonus month dropping out of the three-month average.  

     The ILO unemployment rate for March is anticipated by analysts as a whole

to remain unchanged from its February 3-month rate of 4.2%. This is despite the

weakness in GDP growth in Q1. Whilst labour market activity tends to lag

weakness in economic activity, the anticipation of Q2 unwinding the weather

effects of Q1 could mean the unemployment rate remains robust at what the Bank

of England believes is the natural rate of unemployment. 

                    Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly  ILO Unemployment

-------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus              rate

                      3m % YoY           3m % YoY              3m %

Date Out                15-May             15-May            15-May

Median                     2.7                2.9               4.2

Forecast High              2.8                2.9               4.3

Forecast Low               2.6                2.8               4.1

Standard Deviation         0.1                0.0               0.0

Count                       11                 12                13

Prior                      2.8                2.8               4.2

Barclays                   2.7                2.9               4.2

Berenberg                  2.8                2.8               4.2

Capital Economics          2.7                2.9               4.2

Credit Suisse              N/A                N/A               4.2

Commerzbank                2.7                N/A               4.2

Investec                   2.8                2.9               4.2

JP Morgan                  2.6                2.9               4.2

Lloyds TSB                 2.6                2.9               4.2

Nomura                     N/A                2.9               4.2

Oxford Economics           2.7                2.8               4.1

Scotia                     2.6                2.9               N/A

Standard Chartered         N/A                2.8               4.2

Societe Generale           2.8                2.9               4.3

UniCredit                  2.6                2.9               4.3

     Employment change on a 3m/3m basis has a MNI median estimate reading of

115,000. Worth noting is that the data for employment change tends to be very

volatile which is evident from the standard deviation of the estimates at 33.4.

However, what is clear is that analysts as a whole anticipate the figure to rise

from a February reading of 55,000. 

                    Employment Change

-------------------------------------

                                3m/3m

                                '000s

Date Out                       15-May

Median                          115.0

Forecast High                   150.0

Forecast Low                     60.9

Standard Deviation               33.4

Count                               6

Prior                            55.0

Berenberg                       100.0

Capital Economics               140.0

Investec                         60.9

Lloyds TSB                      150.0

Scotia                          130.0

UniCredit                        95.0

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,MABPR$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]