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Market News Topics
October 09, 2018 14:06 GMT
MNI Data Survey: UK GDP, IoS, IoP, Mfg and Construction
MNI (London)
By Jai Lakhani
LONDON (MNI) - The MNI median points to the m/m growth rate for UK GDP for
August lowering to 0.1% after 0.3% previously, but the 3m/3m growth rate is
anticipated to remain at 0.6%.
August August
----------------------------------
UK UK
GDP GDP
Rate Rate
%M/M %3M/3M
Date Out 10-Oct 10-Oct
Median 0.1 0.6
Forecast High 0.2 0.6
Forecast Low 0.0 0.5
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.0
Count 14 16
Prior 0.3 0.6
Berenberg N/A 0.6
BofAML 0.0 0.6
Capital Economics 0.1 0.6
Credit Suisse N/A N/A
Commerzbank 0.2 0.6
Deka 0.2 0.6
Deutsche Bank 0.1 0.6
DZ Bank 0.1 N/A
HSBC 0.1 0.6
Investec 0.2 0.6
Lloyds TSB 0.2 0.6
Morgan Stanley N/A 0.6
Natwest Markets 0.1 0.6
Nomura 0.1 0.6
Oxford Economics 0.0 0.6
Pantheon 0.1 0.6
Societe Generale 0.0 0.5
UniCredit N/A 0.6
The expected downturn in GDP is likely coming from the 80% reliant services
sector which is predicted to move down to 0.1% m/m growth from 0.3% previously
whilst the rolling 3m/3m is expected to remain at 0.6%. Both estimates mirror
the GDP estimates.
August August
--------------------------------------
UK UK
Index of Index of
Services Services
% M/M %3M/3M
Date Out 10-Oct 10-Oct
Median 0.1 0.5
Forecast High 0.2 0.5
Forecast Low 0.0 0.2
Standard Deviation 0.0 0.1
Count 13 9
Prior 0.3 0.6
Berenberg 0.1 N/A
BofAML 0.1 0.4
Capital Economics 0.1 0.5
Deutsche Bank 0.1 N/A
DZ Bank N/A N/A
HSBC 0.1 0.5
Investec N/A N/A
Lloyds TSB 0.1 0.5
Morgan Stanley 0.2 N/A
Natixis N/A 0.2
Natwest Markets 0.1 0.5
Nomura 0.1 0.5
Oxford Economics 0.1 0.4
Pantheon 0.2 0.5
Societe Generale 0.0 N/A
UniCredit 0.1 N/A
Industrial production is expected to remain on a fairly flat m/m growth
rate of 0.1% after July's 0.1% reading. This will put the y/y rate up a touch to
1.0% from 0.9 previously.
August August
------------------------------------------
UK UK
Industrial Industrial
Production Production
% m/m % oya
Date Out 10-Oct 10-Oct
Median 0.1 1.0
Forecast High 1.0 1.9
Forecast Low -0.4 0.7
Standard Deviation 0.3 0.3
Count 20 15
Prior 0.1 0.9
Berenberg 0.2 N/A
BofAML 0.3 1.1
Capital Economics 0.1 1.0
Credit Suisse -0.3 N/A
Commerzbank -0.1 0.7
Deka 0.1 1.0
Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.0
DZ Bank 0.0 N/A
HSBC 0.1 1.0
ING 0.2 1.1
Investec 0.2 1.1
Lloyds TSB 1.0 1.9
Morgan Stanley 0.1 N/A
Natixis -0.3 0.9
Natwest Markets 0.1 1.0
Nomura 0.2 1.1
Oxford Economics 0.0 0.9
Pantheon 0.5 1.4
Societe Generale 0.2 1.1
UniCredit -0.4 N/A
Despite shining in 2017, manufacturing has been disappointing in 2018, only
seeing positive m/m growth in two out of the first 7 months. The MNI median does
point to August being the third month out of 8 to see positive growth with a m/m
reading of 0.1%. The y/y rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.1%.
August August
------------------------------------------------
UK UK
Manufacturing Manufacturing
Output Output
% m/m % oya
Date Out 10-Oct 10-Oct
Median 0.1 1.1
Forecast High 0.4 1.4
Forecast Low -0.4 0.8
Standard Deviation 0.2 0.2
Count 17 13
Prior -0.2 1.1
Berenberg 0.2 N/A
BofAML 0.2 1.1
Capital Economics -0.2 0.8
Commerzbank -0.2 0.8
Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.1
DZ Bank 0.0 N/A
HSBC 0.1 1.1
Investec 0.4 1.4
Lloyds TSB 0.0 1.0
Morgan Stanley 0.1 N/A
Natixis -0.4 1.0
Natwest Markets 0.2 1.2
Nomura 0.3 1.3
Oxford Economics 0.0 1.0
Pantheon 0.2 1.2
Societe Generale 0.2 1.2
UniCredit -0.3 N/A
The volatile construction sector was very strong in July with m/m growth of
0.5% and y/y growth of 3.5%. The MNI median points to this growth being given
back with a m/m growth rate forecasted at -0.8% and the y/y rate anticipated to
drop to 1.2%.
August August
----------------------------------------------
UK UK
Construction Construction
Output Output
% m/m % oya
Date Out 10-Oct 10-Oct
Median -0.8 1.2
Forecast High 0.3 1.9
Forecast Low -1.5 0.5
Standard Deviation 0.5 0.4
Count 11 8
Prior 0.5 3.5
Berenberg 0.3 N/A
BofAML -0.8 1.2
Capital Economics -0.4 1.4
Deutsche Bank -0.4 N/A
HSBC -0.5 1.4
Investec N/A N/A
Lloyds TSB 0.0 1.9
Natwest Markets -1.0 0.9
Oxford Economics -0.8 1.1
Pantheon -1.5 0.5
Societe Generale -1.0 0.9
UniCredit -1.0 N/A
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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