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Free AccessMNI DATA SURVEY: UK Nov Public Sector Borrowing
By Jamie Satchithanantham
LONDON (MNI) - Delivered on the eve of the Chancellor's Autumn Budget, the
October public sector borrowing figures were largely overlooked. Too late to be
integrated into the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR's) latest set of
forecasts, the figures showed that for only the second time this fiscal year
borrowing overshot its year-ago reading.
Public sector net borrowing excluding financial sector interventions (PSNB
ex) came in at stg8.0bn, stg0.5bn higher than last October, to leave
year-to-date borrowing at stg38.5bn, 9.6% lower than the same period a year ago.
The OBR's latest set of forecasts - published alongside Chancellor of the
Exchequer Philip Hammond's net-giveaway fiscal measures - put cumulative 2017/18
borrowing at stg49.9bn. That means in the remaining 5 months of the fiscal year
(Nov-Mar) the OBR expects to see a further stg11.4bn deterioration.
Analysts see much of this worsening not taking place until after the new
year when temporary factors that artificially held down borrowing in 16/17
unwind*. That said, for the next two months, at least, borrowing should continue
to measure up roughly in line with its respective year-ago levels.
A survey of analysts, carried out by MNI and detailed below, found the
median outcome is for November borrowing to come in at stg9.0bn, broadly in line
with last year's stg8.9bn result.
*The April 2016 increase on tax dividends distorted self assessment tax
receipts, with investors bringing forward transactions to avoid the higher levy.
This boosted receipts in Jan/Feb 2017 which will not be repeated in Jan/Feb
2018.
------------------------------------
Nov
Public Finances-
PSNB ex
stg bn
Date Out 21-Dec
Median 9.0
Forecast High 15.0
Forecast Low 8.3
Standard Deviation 2.0
Count 10
Prior 8.0
Capital Economics 8.7
Credit Suisse 8.3
HSBC 8.6
Investec 8.9
JP Morgan 9.9
Lloyds TSB 9.2
Oxford Economics 8.3
Pantheon 9.0
Standard Chartered 15.0
Societe Generale 9.2
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.