MNI DATA SURVEY: UK Nov Public Sector Borrowing

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Delivered on the eve of the Chancellor's Autumn Budget, the

October public sector borrowing figures were largely overlooked. Too late to be

integrated into the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR's) latest set of

forecasts, the figures showed that for only the second time this fiscal year

borrowing overshot its year-ago reading. 

     Public sector net borrowing excluding financial sector interventions (PSNB

ex) came in at stg8.0bn, stg0.5bn higher than last October, to leave

year-to-date borrowing at stg38.5bn, 9.6% lower than the same period a year ago.

     The OBR's latest set of forecasts - published alongside Chancellor of the

Exchequer Philip Hammond's net-giveaway fiscal measures - put cumulative 2017/18

borrowing at stg49.9bn. That means in the remaining 5 months of the fiscal year

(Nov-Mar) the OBR expects to see a further stg11.4bn deterioration.

     Analysts see much of this worsening not taking place until after the new

year when temporary factors that artificially held down borrowing in 16/17

unwind*. That said, for the next two months, at least, borrowing should continue

to measure up roughly in line with its respective year-ago levels.

     A survey of analysts, carried out by MNI and detailed below, found the

median outcome is for November borrowing to come in at stg9.0bn, broadly in line

with last year's stg8.9bn result.   

     *The April 2016 increase on tax dividends distorted self assessment tax

receipts, with investors bringing forward transactions to avoid the higher levy.

This boosted receipts in Jan/Feb 2017 which will not be repeated in Jan/Feb

2018.  

------------------------------------

                                 Nov

                    Public Finances-

                             PSNB ex

                              stg bn

Date Out                      21-Dec

Median                           9.0

Forecast High                   15.0

Forecast Low                     8.3

Standard Deviation               2.0

Count                             10

Prior                            8.0

Capital Economics                8.7

Credit Suisse                    8.3

HSBC                             8.6

Investec                         8.9

JP Morgan                        9.9

Lloyds TSB                       9.2

Oxford Economics                 8.3

Pantheon                         9.0

Standard Chartered              15.0

Societe Generale                 9.2

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

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