MNI Data Survey: UK Trade, GDP, IoS, IoP, Mfg and Construction

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - The UK trade balance for May is anticipated by analysts to

narrow. It is worth noting that April's stg5.3 bn trade deficit was largely

created from a widening of erratics trade which should reverse, as well as the

adverse weather in Q1 impacting manufacturing. Consequently, the median forecast

for May's trade balance lies at stg2.3 bn. 

                               UK

---------------------------------

                            Total

                    Trade balance

                           stg bn

Date Out                   10-Jul

Median                       -2.3

Forecast High                -2.0

Forecast Low                 -3.5

Standard Deviation            0.7

Count                           6

Prior                        -5.3

Capital Economics            -3.5

Investec                     -2.0

Oxford Economics             -2.0

Pantheon                     -3.4

Societe Generale             -2.0

UniCredit                    -2.5

     The new m/m and 3M/3M growth rate for GDP tomorrow is anticipated to show a

rebound in growth for May. Median estimates point to a 0.3% m/m growth and 0.2%

3M/3M growth. 

                        UK      UK

----------------------------------

                       GDP     GDP

                      Rate    Rate

                      %M/M  %3M/3M

Date Out            10-Jul  10-Jul

Median                 0.3     0.2

Forecast High          0.3     0.3

Forecast Low           0.2     0.1

Standard Deviation     0.0     0.1

Count                    7       7

Capital Economics      0.3     0.3

Credit Suisse          0.3     N/A

Investec               0.3     0.2

JP Morgan              0.2     0.3

Lloyds TSB             0.2     0.3

Oxford Economics       0.3     0.2

Pantheon               0.3     0.2

UniCredit              N/A     0.1

     After a strong showing in the May services PMI and retail sales, it is not

surprising that the m/m figure for May's Index of Services is anticipated to

grow by 0.3%. 

                          UK

----------------------------

                    Index of

                    Services

                       % M/M

Date Out              10-Jul

Median                   0.3

Forecast High            0.3

Forecast Low             0.2

Standard Deviation       0.1

Count                      4

Prior                    0.3

Lloyds TSB               0.3

Oxford Economics         0.3

Societe Generale         0.3

UniCredit                0.2

     Industrial Production declined sharply m/m in April, driven by a 1.4% fall

in manufacturing. Whilst it is likely that lower gas and electricity output in

the warm weather as well as an unexpected closure of a part of North Sea oil

field for maintenance works will weigh on manufacturing and industrial

production, a recovery is still likely for May. Analysts median estimates

suggest a m/m and y/y growth rate of 0.5% and 1.8% respectively for industrial

production. Manufacturing is anticipated to grow by 1% and 2% on a m/m and y/y

basis respectively. 

                            UK          UK             UK             UK

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    Industrial  Industrial  Manufacturing  Manufacturing

                    Production  Production         Output         Output

                         % m/m       % oya          % m/m          % oya

Date Out                10-Jul      10-Jul         10-Jul         10-Jul

Median                     0.5         1.8            1.0            2.2

Forecast High              0.8         2.1            1.6            2.7

Forecast Low              -0.3         1.4            0.2            1.3

Standard Deviation         0.4         0.4            0.4            0.5

Count                        7           4              7              5

Prior                     -0.8         1.8           -1.4            1.4

Capital Economics          0.6         2.0            1.0            2.1

Credit Suisse              0.5         N/A            N/A            N/A

Investec                   0.1         1.4            0.2            1.3

Lloyds TSB                -0.3         1.5            0.7            2.2

Nomura                     0.5         N/A            0.7            N/A

Oxford Economics           0.8         2.1            1.1            2.2

Societe Generale           N/A         N/A            1.6            2.7

UniCredit                  0.5         N/A            1.0            N/A

     Construction is expected to grow by 0.8% m/m for May, up from the 0.5% m/m

growth recorded in April. 

                              UK

--------------------------------

                    Construction

                          Output

                           % m/m

Date Out                  10-Jul

Median                       0.8

Forecast High                1.5

Forecast Low                 0.1

Standard Deviation           0.5

Count                          5

Prior                        0.5

Capital Economics            0.5

Lloyds TSB                   0.8

Oxford Economics             0.1

Societe Generale             1.0

UniCredit                    1.5

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]