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MNI Data Survey: UK Trade, GDP, IoS, IoP, Mfg and Construction

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 14:50 GMT Jul 9/10:50 EST Jul 9
By Jai Lakhani
     LONDON (MNI) - The UK trade balance for May is anticipated by analysts to
narrow. It is worth noting that April's stg5.3 bn trade deficit was largely
created from a widening of erratics trade which should reverse, as well as the
adverse weather in Q1 impacting manufacturing. Consequently, the median forecast
for May's trade balance lies at stg2.3 bn. 
                               UK
---------------------------------
                            Total
                    Trade balance
                           stg bn
Date Out                   10-Jul
Median                       -2.3
Forecast High                -2.0
Forecast Low                 -3.5
Standard Deviation            0.7
Count                           6
Prior                        -5.3
Capital Economics            -3.5
Investec                     -2.0
Oxford Economics             -2.0
Pantheon                     -3.4
Societe Generale             -2.0
UniCredit                    -2.5
     The new m/m and 3M/3M growth rate for GDP tomorrow is anticipated to show a
rebound in growth for May. Median estimates point to a 0.3% m/m growth and 0.2%
3M/3M growth. 
                        UK      UK
----------------------------------
                       GDP     GDP
                      Rate    Rate
                      %M/M  %3M/3M
Date Out            10-Jul  10-Jul
Median                 0.3     0.2
Forecast High          0.3     0.3
Forecast Low           0.2     0.1
Standard Deviation     0.0     0.1
Count                    7       7
Capital Economics      0.3     0.3
Credit Suisse          0.3     N/A
Investec               0.3     0.2
JP Morgan              0.2     0.3
Lloyds TSB             0.2     0.3
Oxford Economics       0.3     0.2
Pantheon               0.3     0.2
UniCredit              N/A     0.1
     After a strong showing in the May services PMI and retail sales, it is not
surprising that the m/m figure for May's Index of Services is anticipated to
grow by 0.3%. 
                          UK
----------------------------
                    Index of
                    Services
                       % M/M
Date Out              10-Jul
Median                   0.3
Forecast High            0.3
Forecast Low             0.2
Standard Deviation       0.1
Count                      4
Prior                    0.3
Lloyds TSB               0.3
Oxford Economics         0.3
Societe Generale         0.3
UniCredit                0.2
     Industrial Production declined sharply m/m in April, driven by a 1.4% fall
in manufacturing. Whilst it is likely that lower gas and electricity output in
the warm weather as well as an unexpected closure of a part of North Sea oil
field for maintenance works will weigh on manufacturing and industrial
production, a recovery is still likely for May. Analysts median estimates
suggest a m/m and y/y growth rate of 0.5% and 1.8% respectively for industrial
production. Manufacturing is anticipated to grow by 1% and 2% on a m/m and y/y
basis respectively. 
                            UK          UK             UK             UK
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Industrial  Industrial  Manufacturing  Manufacturing
                    Production  Production         Output         Output
                         % m/m       % oya          % m/m          % oya
Date Out                10-Jul      10-Jul         10-Jul         10-Jul
Median                     0.5         1.8            1.0            2.2
Forecast High              0.8         2.1            1.6            2.7
Forecast Low              -0.3         1.4            0.2            1.3
Standard Deviation         0.4         0.4            0.4            0.5
Count                        7           4              7              5
Prior                     -0.8         1.8           -1.4            1.4
Capital Economics          0.6         2.0            1.0            2.1
Credit Suisse              0.5         N/A            N/A            N/A
Investec                   0.1         1.4            0.2            1.3
Lloyds TSB                -0.3         1.5            0.7            2.2
Nomura                     0.5         N/A            0.7            N/A
Oxford Economics           0.8         2.1            1.1            2.2
Societe Generale           N/A         N/A            1.6            2.7
UniCredit                  0.5         N/A            1.0            N/A
     Construction is expected to grow by 0.8% m/m for May, up from the 0.5% m/m
growth recorded in April. 
                              UK
--------------------------------
                    Construction
                          Output
                           % m/m
Date Out                  10-Jul
Median                       0.8
Forecast High                1.5
Forecast Low                 0.1
Standard Deviation           0.5
Count                          5
Prior                        0.5
Capital Economics            0.5
Lloyds TSB                   0.8
Oxford Economics             0.1
Societe Generale             1.0
UniCredit                    1.5
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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