MNI: Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates a "further...>

MNI: Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates a "further escalation of the US-China

trade dispute to include $200bn of imports could reduce real US GDP growth by

roughly -0.2 to -0.3 percentage points. In addition, the effective $32.5 billion

"tax" on imported goods could have the effect of boosting core PCE inflation by

roughly 0.15 percentage points."

- Their base case remains that the "trade conflict with China will be settled

before it progresses significantly beyond the initial imposition of tariffs on

$50bn of imports in both directions. However, recent events have clearly

increased the risks that the conflict will begin to have measurable negative

economic effects. If things do go further, we are guessing that the stock market

correction could get into the -5% to -10% range. If a settlement is then

negotiated quickly, the stock market could recover and the risks to GDP

mitigated. However, if a trade war gathers further momentum, it could well

induce the next recession."