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MNI ECB Preview - May 2023: Stepping Down, But Not Done Yet

MNI ECB Preview - May 2023: Stepping Down, But Not Done Yet

MNI ECB Preview - May 2023: Stepping Down, But Not Done Yet

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The ECB is set to hike its key policy rates by 25bp on May 4, with latest inflation and banking sector data diminishing the case for 50bp.
  • Given the uncertain outlook, the ECB is unlikely to provide explicit forward guidance at this juncture, though will likely nod to further tightening being likely in the baseline scenario.
  • There is potential for a TLTRO "bridge" operation to be announced Thursday; more surprising - but possible - would be a decision on APP runoff beyond June .

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

ECBPrevMay2023.pdf





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