MNI BRIEF: BOC Cites Policy "Traction" For Leading Fed On Cuts

MNI: Fed's Barr: 9% Capital Hike For Top Banks In Re-Proposal

MNI: Fraying World Trade Making CPI Higher, More Volatile- BOC

MNI BRIEF: Brazil's August Inflation 4.24%, Monthly Deflation

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, Sept 10

MNI BRIEF:China To Resolve EV Disputes With EU Via Negotiation

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Wednesday

MNI: US REDBOOK: SEP STORE SALES +6.5% V YR AGO MO

US NFIB AUG SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 91.2

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI ECB Preview - September 2024: September Cut, October Pause

The ECB is expected to cut the deposit rate at the September meeting but will avoid providing a clear signal for the next meeting in October.

Central Bank PreviewHomepageCentral Bank ReportsMarketsECB - Preview

September Cut, October Pause

  • The ECB will cut the deposit rate by 25bp at this week’s meeting.
  • Having previously indicated that the trajectory for policy rates is lower provided that incoming data supports the baseline scenario, the weakening growth outlook and signs of moderating wage pressure provide sufficient cover for the ECB to cut.
  • We would not expect any signs of the ECB pre-committing to another cut in October as with inflation close to target there is no urgency to do so. Moreover, indications of back-to-back cuts would undermine President Lagarde’s previous assertion that policy rates will not necessarily move lower in a linear fashion, in turn triggering a dovish re-pricing that would be at odds with the ECBs cautious approach to normalisation.

For the full publication, please see:

Keep reading...Show less
142 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

September Cut, October Pause

  • The ECB will cut the deposit rate by 25bp at this week’s meeting.
  • Having previously indicated that the trajectory for policy rates is lower provided that incoming data supports the baseline scenario, the weakening growth outlook and signs of moderating wage pressure provide sufficient cover for the ECB to cut.
  • We would not expect any signs of the ECB pre-committing to another cut in October as with inflation close to target there is no urgency to do so. Moreover, indications of back-to-back cuts would undermine President Lagarde’s previous assertion that policy rates will not necessarily move lower in a linear fashion, in turn triggering a dovish re-pricing that would be at odds with the ECBs cautious approach to normalisation.

For the full publication, please see:

Keep reading...Show less