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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI ECB REVIEW: June 2021 - Gearing Up For September
MNI ECB REVIEW: June 2021 - Gearing Up For September
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The ECB left its main policy parameters unchanged at the June meeting, reaffirming its commitment to conduct purchases under PEPP at a "significantly higher" pace than at the beginning of the year. President Lagarde reiterated her position that talk of a PEPP taper was premature and highlighted the unanimous support for the introductory statement. However, indications that not all members of the Governing Council supported all aspects of the policy decision, alongside a marked improvement in the economic growth forecasts, suggests that speculation of a taper has not been fully quashed.
This sets up the September meeting as being a key date in the calendar. At that point there will be far more visibility on the extent to which the economy has recovered and how close member states are to getting 70% of the population vaccinated against Covid-19. Given that by September there will be just over six months until the official expiry of PEPP, this would be an opportune time to consider the exit strategy, or prolongation if the recovery disappoints.
Finally, given the clearly still weak medium-term inflation projection, the ECB is implicitly signalling that policy will need to remain accommodative for some time, suggesting that the APP is likely to take over once PEPP is concluded.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.