MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 22 July, 2024

• Belgium, Germany and Italy all look to hold auctions in the week ahead, we also think there is a chance of an Italian syndication.
• We pencil in an estimated gross issuance for the week at E17.0bln, down from E31.2bln this week.
• The week ahead sees one large redemption: E19.28bln from a formerly 10-year French OATei.
• Coupon payments for the week are E6.7bln, of which E6.2bln are French, E0.3bln are Portuguese, and E0.1bln are Greek.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E9.0bln versus negative E5.5bln this week.

EZ240722.pdf

Supply Next Week

• On Monday, Belgium will kick off issuance for the week with a conventional auction of on-the-run 10/30-year OLOs for E2.0-2.5bln. On offer will be the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694) and the 3.50% Jun-55 OLO (ISIN: BE0000361700). The size is in line with our expectations and the same as other auctions held so far this year; we expect the top of the range to be sold.
• On Tuesday, Germany will sell E5bln of the new Sep-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22064). The coupon will be announced the preceding day.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 10-year Bund auction. On offer will be E5bln of the 2.60% Aug-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z031).
• On Thursday, Italy will conclude issuance for the week by holding a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. We think that there is a good chance that the new BTP Short Term maturing 28 August 2026 will be launched. Details will be announced Monday 22 July.
• We think there is a chance that Italy chooses to hold a syndication (following this week’s buyback), potentially to launch the new 10-year BTP with a maturity date of 1 February 2035. If there is a syndication, we pencil in a size of around E10bln.