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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 7 Oct

EU (and possibly Slovakia) will hold a syndication whilst the Netherlands, Austria, Germany and Italy will hold auctions
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MNI (LONDON)
  • The EU will hold a syndication in the upcoming week, whilst the Netherlands, Austria, Germany and Italy look to hold auctions. We also think that there is a good chance of a Slovakian syndication in the week.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E23.4bln, a little below the E25.6bln sold this week.
  • The week ahead sees two redemptions totalling E4.2bln, with the majority (E4.0bln) from a formerly short 7-year EFSF bond.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E1.0bln, of which E0.9bln are from the EU.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E18.3bln, down from E22.2bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ241007.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EU will hold a syndication in the W/C 7 October. We don’t have a strong view surrounding the bond(s) that will be on offer but we note the last two years has seen the EU launch a new 20-year issue in October while October 2021 saw the launch of a new 15-year Green EU-bond.
  • On Tuesday 8 October, the Netherlands will kick off auctions for the week with the on-the-run 10-year 2.50% Jul-34 DSL (ISIN: NL0015001XZ6) on offer for E2.0-2.5bln.
  • Also on Tuesday 8 October, Austria will hold an RAGB auction. On offer will be a combined E1.725bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.90% Feb-34 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A39UW5) and the on-the-run 30-year 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7).
  • Germany also on Tuesday 8 October, will hold its final Green auction of the year. On offer will be E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005).
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday 9 October to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 0% May-36 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102549) alongside E1bln of the on-the-run 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009).
  • Finally on Wednesday 9 October, Portugal will potentially hold an OT auction. If it does details will be announced Friday 4 October. We put the probability of Portugal holding an auction here at a little under 50%, with an auction more likely on Wednesday 23 October in our view.
  • On Friday 11 October, Italy will hold a 3/7 and 15-50 year BTP auction. Details be announced on Tuesday 8 October. We expect the on-the-run 3-year 3.45% Jul-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005599904) to be on offer alongside the on-the-run 7-year 3.45% Jul-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005595803). We don’t have a strong view surrounding the 15+ year BTP that will be on offer.
  • We pencil in a Slovakian syndication in the W/C 7 October. We think that the 5/7/15/30-year areas maturity looks most attractive.
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MNI (LONDON)
  • The EU will hold a syndication in the upcoming week, whilst the Netherlands, Austria, Germany and Italy look to hold auctions. We also think that there is a good chance of a Slovakian syndication in the week.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E23.4bln, a little below the E25.6bln sold this week.
  • The week ahead sees two redemptions totalling E4.2bln, with the majority (E4.0bln) from a formerly short 7-year EFSF bond.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E1.0bln, of which E0.9bln are from the EU.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E18.3bln, down from E22.2bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ241007.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EU will hold a syndication in the W/C 7 October. We don’t have a strong view surrounding the bond(s) that will be on offer but we note the last two years has seen the EU launch a new 20-year issue in October while October 2021 saw the launch of a new 15-year Green EU-bond.
  • On Tuesday 8 October, the Netherlands will kick off auctions for the week with the on-the-run 10-year 2.50% Jul-34 DSL (ISIN: NL0015001XZ6) on offer for E2.0-2.5bln.
  • Also on Tuesday 8 October, Austria will hold an RAGB auction. On offer will be a combined E1.725bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.90% Feb-34 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A39UW5) and the on-the-run 30-year 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7).
  • Germany also on Tuesday 8 October, will hold its final Green auction of the year. On offer will be E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005).
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday 9 October to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 0% May-36 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102549) alongside E1bln of the on-the-run 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009).
  • Finally on Wednesday 9 October, Portugal will potentially hold an OT auction. If it does details will be announced Friday 4 October. We put the probability of Portugal holding an auction here at a little under 50%, with an auction more likely on Wednesday 23 October in our view.
  • On Friday 11 October, Italy will hold a 3/7 and 15-50 year BTP auction. Details be announced on Tuesday 8 October. We expect the on-the-run 3-year 3.45% Jul-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005599904) to be on offer alongside the on-the-run 7-year 3.45% Jul-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005595803). We don’t have a strong view surrounding the 15+ year BTP that will be on offer.
  • We pencil in a Slovakian syndication in the W/C 7 October. We think that the 5/7/15/30-year areas maturity looks most attractive.