EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA (04 Feb)
MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA (04 Feb)
Source: BBG
Measure Level Δ DoD
5yr UST 4.33% -3bp
10yr UST 4.53% -3bp
5s-10s UST 19.62 +0bp
WTI Crude 72.5 -0.6
Gold 2838 +23.3
Bonds* Z-Sprd Δ DoD
REPHUN 5 1/2 03/26/36 207bp +7bp
POLAND 5 1/8 09/18/34 137bp +4bp
ROMANI 5 3/4 03/24/35 317bp +3bp
TURKEY 6 1/2 01/03/35 318bp -3bp
KAZAKS 4.714 04/09/35 120bp +1bp
UZBEK 6.9 02/28/32 312bp +0bp
KSA 5 5/8 01/13/35 142bp +3bp
ADGB 5 04/30/34 90bp +2bp
QATAR 4 3/4 05/29/34 75bp +0bp
BHRAIN 7 1/2 02/12/36 288bp +1bp
SOAF 7.1 11/19/36 333bp +2bp
NGERIA 10 3/8 12/09/34 568bp -3bp
GHANA 5 07/03/35 705bp -9bp
BENIN 8 3/8 01/23/41 469bp +0bp
EGYPT 7.3 09/30/33 559bp -10bp
- Source: CBBT, BGN for GH and BN
FX Level Δ DoD
USDZAR 18.65 -0.10
USDTRY 35.94 -0.02
EURHUF 407.0 -1.50
EURPLN 4.22 -0.01
EURCZK 25.16 -0.06
** The main stories out of the regions **
That tightening bias seen during ASIA hours felt more mixed for CEEMEA. U.S. Treasuries are showing 10Y @ 4.53%, -3bp, with 5s/10s unch @ 19.62. Benchmark CEE sovereign bonds are charting marginally wider in z-spread, eg REPHUN 36s +7bp, POLAND 34s +4bp. Israel’s sovereign paper is also ending the day some 10-20bp wider in z-spread. Conversely, sovereign Egypt, Angola and Ukraine are ending the session tighter across the term structure with select maturities 10-30bp inside vs previous CoB. Primary saw issuers mandating banks, with Saudi Arabian Mining (Ma’aden) indicating plans for a USD dual tranche Sukuk, 5Y & 10Y tenors potentially. We looked at the issuer’s credit profile, sketching a note with fair value estimates looking at both country and industry peers. Elsewhere, we highlighted newsflow on Tullow Oil (new interim CEO, TLWN 26s charting some 30cents lower on the day), Hungarian MVM’s first-time rating by Moody’s and South Africa’s Vodacom posting Q325 revenues update. Among bond movers, RWANDA 5.5 31s is charting 10bp wider on the day as uncertainty remains elevated in the neighbouring DRC eastern region.