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MNI Employment Insight, Mar'23: SVB-Related Fallout Trumps Goldilocks Report

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  • We’re left with a labour market that was still drumming up very fast seasonally adjusted payrolls creation in February (311k vs cons 225k) albeit with downward revisions taking the gloss off, especially for the private sector.
  • However, increased labour supply plus a small miss for overall AHE growth helps mitigate inflationary pressures but it’s only one month of data, with more reliable wage measures and clearly upcoming CPI in firm focus.
  • Powell’s prior openess to a 50bp hike at the upcoming meeting helped limit market reaction but continued fallout from SVB’s failure has seen huge FI rallies with Goldman leading analysts in calling for a temporary pause with the March FOMC decision.

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