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MNI estimates a 3-4 tenths miss for German national CPI

GERMAN DATA
  • We have now received state data that equates to a 83.7% weighting in the national German CPI print.
  • MNI calculations estimate that CPI fell -0.5%M/M, which would be equivalent to a 10.0%Y/Y increase.
  • The Bloomberg consensus is for a -0.2%M/M fall and a 10.4%Y/Y increase - so based on our calculations there has been a 3 tenths miss to M/M and a 4 tenths miss to the Y/Y print.
  • We will refine this estimate later after we have receive Saxony data.
  • And a caveat here too - this is in relation to the national CPI print - not the HICP print (which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets). The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
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