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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Gilts Long Into Roll

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Gilts Long Into Roll

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Gilts Long Into Roll

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Despite most bond futures remaining structurally flat since our last biweekly Pi update, the tendency for most contracts has been toward short territory.
  • Three notable exceptions: Schatz and Bobl have moved away from extreme shorts, while Gilt continued to push further into long territory going into the quarterly roll.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi24Feb2023.pdf

  • GERMANY: Schatz and Bobl retain the shortest structural positioning in Europe Pi, but the latest update shows a retracement to "short"" from "very short". Bund and Buxl remain structurally flat, though Bund remains on the cusp of "long" territory. The most recent week saw mixed trade, with some shorts set and longs reduced.
  • OAT: OAT positioning continues to pull back from the cusp of long territory, remaining flat for now, though shorts were set in the most recent week.
  • GILT: Long positioning in Gilts that began with a jump in open interest at the start of Feb has continued: structural positioning is very long (despite longs pared in the past week).
  • BTP: BTP structural positioning remains flat (after ECB meeting-related short covering). Some fresh shorts were set last week.



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