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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Mostly Short

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Mostly Short

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Mostly Short

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Structural positioning has shifted across a few contracts since our last Europe Pi on Aug 29 (we did not publish in mid-Sep due to the distortions creaded by the quarterly Eurex roll period).
  • Most contracts sit in structural short territory, vs mostly long/flat late last month.
  • Shorts were set across most of the space last week.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi25Sep2023.pdf


  • GERMANY: Schatz stands out among German contracts in long positioning, having moved from short to long between Jul and late Aug. Bund comes in at very short, having gone from short to flat over Jul-Aug. Bobl and Buxl meanwhile have pulled back from structural flat territory to sit short. All four contracts saw shorts set last week.
  • OAT: OAT has drifted continually away from structural longs seen in mid-May to increasingly pronounced shorts - and is very short currently. Further shorts were set last week.
  • GILT: Gilts have flipped more quickly than OAT from structural longs (in early Aug) to shorts, which were reached in early Sept. Activity was indicative of long reduction last week.
  • BTP: BTP structural positioning remains in long territory, which has become the new norm since mid-Aug after mostly flat/short in 1H 2023. Some shorts were set last week.



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