- The BoJ held rates as expected, but had some hawkish undertones in its statement. The rate hike path is intact, but significant uncertainty remains over the timing of the next move. JPY is modestly stronger, but JGBs are little changed.
- The official China manufacturing PMI moved back into expansion territory for October, a solid result given seasonal headwinds. Positive pass through to China related assets has been modest though.
- It has been a slow session for US Tsy futures, ranges have been narrow, while volumes have been slightly below recent averages. Gold hit another record high in the commodity space.
- Later US Q3 ECI, September PCE prices, personal income/spending, October job cuts and jobless claims are released. Also euro area October preliminary CPI and German September retail sales print.
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Off Earlier Lows, Ranges Narrow Ahead Of Jobless Claims
- It has been a slow session for tsys futures, ranges have been narrow, while volumes have been slightly below recent averages. Futures have been slowly ticking higher, however nothing of note. Futures remain below NY close levels, with TU is -01⅜ at 102-30⅞ while TY -05+ at 110-17
- Earlier this morning there was a TU/UXY Block steepener, DV01 $460k, and a Block buy of UXY, DV01 $430k
- Cash tsy curve has bull-flattened throughout the session, following on from overnight bear-flattening move, yields are 1-2.5bps richer. The 2yr is -1.2bps at 4.17%, while the 10yr is -2.2bps. The 2s10s is -1bp at 10.4bps, the curve has now flattened about 8bps over the past two sessions.
- Fed fund futures remain steady across the next few meetings, with 23.5bps priced for November, 42.5bps for December, and 57.1bps for January.
- Focus turns to Thursday’s weekly claims, personal income/spending and MNI’s Chicago PMI data, not to mention Friday's October employment data and next Tuesday's Presidential Election.
BOJ: On Hold As Expected, Further Tightening Likely, Timing Uncertain
As widely expected, the BoJ kept rates on hold at 0.25%.
- In terms of the central bank forecasts, for core CPI in financial year (FY) 2025, it was nudged down to 1.9% from 2.1% previously, the 2024 and 2026 forecasts at 2.5% and 1.9% respectively were unchanged. The Core CPI ex energy forecasts were unchanged for 2025 at 1.9% and 2.1% for 2026. The 2024 forecast was nudged up to 2.0% (from 1.9% prior).
- The BoJ still stated that there are upside price risks for the 2025 FY forecast.
- On growth, there was little change in the forecast profile. The 2025 FY projection was raised to 1.1% from 1.0%.
- The central bank stated that price trends look to be in line with its 2% goal in the second half of the forecast period. It also described real rates as a significantly low level. The cycle of rising wages and inflation is likely to continue, while medium term inflation expectations were described as rising moderately.
- Equally the BoJ noted that uncertainty around the economy, prices and their respective outlooks remains high.
- Hence this gives the BoJ time to assess developments, something which Governor Ueda alluded to recently.
- The bias is clearly for the BoJ to remove easy financial conditions further. We didn't get much fresh insight on the timing of such a shift though.
- Next up is Ueda' press conference, 3:30pm local time (6:30am BST).
JGBS: Cash Bonds Little Changed As BoJ Delivers Expected Decision
JGB futures have nudged higher, +3 compared to settlement levels, after the BoJ policy decision.
- At its October 30-31 meeting, the BoJ Policy Board unanimously (9-0) decided to keep the policy rate at 0.25%, as expected, amid heightened economic uncertainty and concerns over government stability following the ruling coalition’s weakest electoral outcome since 2009.
- The decision aligned with expectations from all but one of the 53 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, as well as with market pricing.
- Notably, the BoJ reaffirmed its commitment to raise rates if inflation targets are met, a pledge that was absent in the September meeting.
- The BoJ has trimmed its inflation outlook for next fiscal year, from 2.1% in July to 1.9% today. The following year is also projected to be 1.9%.
- Officials see next year’s GDP slightly stronger at 1.1% vs a 1% prior estimate. Core consumer prices are also seen slightly higher this year at 2% vs a 1.9% prior estimate.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bear-flattener. Focus now turns to today’s weekly claims, personal income/spending and MNI’s Chicago PMI data.
- Cash JGBs and swaps are little changed across benchmarks.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Jibun Bank PMI Mfg.
JAPAN DATA: Activity Data Mixed, Retail Spend Falls, IP Rebounds
Japan retail sales were comfortably below market expectations for Sep. Falling -2.3%m/m, against a -0.3% forecast. This bought the y/y pace down to 0.5% (2.1% was the forecast). This is the weakest pace of retail spend momentum since early 2022. IP for Sep was better, up 1.4%m/m, against a 0.8% forecast. Still the y/y pace remains negative at -2.8%.
- For retail there wasn't one positive category in terms of m/m spend. For IP, a rebound in auto production helped the print (+7.1%m/m. The METI expects another rise in Oct output by 8.3%m/m, but Nov is expected to see a pull back (-3.7%m/m).
- IP rebounding is a positive for Q3 GDP, but the softer spending tone from households will be a BoJ watch point.
JAPAN DATA: Local Investors Continue To Sell Offshore Bonds & Stocks
Foreign inflows into Japan stocks remained positive last week, albeit just. This marks the 5th straight week of inflows. Still cumulative inflows since the start of August remain strongly negative, around -¥4trln. This fits with Japan equity indices sitting comfortably off mid July cycle highs. In the bond space, offshore investors returned to being net buyers of local bonds last week. In four out of the last 5 weeks we have seen positive inflows into this space.
- In terms of outbound flows, we saw local investors continue to dump offshore bonds. This fits with the higher US yield backdrop over recent weeks, which has crimped global bond returns.
- Local investors also remained net sellers of offshore equities for the third straight week.
Table 1: Japan Weekly Investment Flows
| Billion Yen | Week ending Oct 25 | Prior Week |
| Foreign Buying Japan Stocks | 8.0 | 581.9 |
| Foreign Buying Japan Bonds | 277.9 | -487.1 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Bonds | -889.6 | -614.7 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Stocks | -397.6 | -384.8 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUSTRALIA: Sticky Services Inflation Not Just An Australian Problem
Australian September core and services inflation was lower than the US and the UK for services, yet both those central banks have begun to ease. The RBA pointed out that Australian rates were not as high as much of the OECD, including the US and UK, and that its economy is more sensitive to rates. With core still above target and services inflation rising in September, the RBA remains on hold. But sticky services may mean that easing by the Fed and BoE will also be cautious.
- The RBA is watching sticky services inflation not only in Australia but also elsewhere. This trend has continued with much of the OECD still above 4% and this persistence is likely to continue worrying the RBA.
- It decided to hike rates less than other countries to ensure most of the employment gains were retained. The economy has created more jobs in the year to September in 2024 than in 2023. This and upside inflation risks means the RBA may be one of the last to begin easing.
- Australian rates peaked at only 4.35% compared with the US at 5.5%, UK 5.25%, euro area 4.5% and Canada 5.0%.
OECD policy rates %
- Australian September trimmed mean inflation printed at 3.2% y/y in line with the UK but below the US’ 3.3% and above Canada (2.4%) and the euro area (2.6%).
- Australian services rose 4.4% y/y below the US’ 4.7% and the UK’s 4.9% but above the euro area’s 3.9%. Norway is also yet to ease and services increased 0.2pp to 3.8%.
OECD services CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABS
- Q3 underlying inflation in NZ was 3.4% just below Australia’s 3.5%, while services were 4.5% compared with 4.6%. The RBNZ has eased 75bp but the OCR is still 40bp above Australia’s.
- The BoE eased 25bp in August to 5% but then paused in September demonstrating caution given that core is 3.2% y/y and services 4.9%. Expectations for the Fed have been reduced.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Narrow Ranges, Bldg Apps On The Move
ACGBs (YM -7.0 & XM -5.0) are cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session.
- Outside of the previously outlined domestic data drop (Retail Sales, Terms of Trade, Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit), there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Building approvals are finally gathering momentum in a housing market characterised by low stocks. But the total continues to be below the level in January 2020 despite an 8.7% increase in the working-age population since then. Continued pressure on the housing market is likely to drive further home price and rental increases.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
- Swap rates are 5bps higher.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -8.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed by 1-7bps, with gains led by later meetings. Today’s movements place 2025 meetings 3-8bps above pre-CPI levels from yesterday. Just 2bps of easing is priced in by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Value, Judo Bank PMI Mfg, Household Spending, PPI and Home Loans Value data alongside AOFM’s planned sale of A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond.
AUSTRALIA DATA: Retail Spending Recovering Gradually As Real Incomes Improve
Australian retail sales have been gradually trending higher since the end of last year and Q3 appears to have received support from tax cuts, energy rebates and rising real wages as inflation moderates. Q3 retail sales volumes rose 0.5% q/q, in line with consensus after falling 0.4% in Q2, to be up 0.2% y/y, the first positive since Q1 2023. Consumption remains an area of concern though and comments from the RBA next week will be watched closely.
Australia quarterly retail sales y/y%
- The ABS observes that “recent spending patterns continue to show that consumers remain price conscious and responsive to discounting.”
- Retail prices rose 0.6% q/q in Q3 down from 1.0% in Q2. The ABS notes that Q3 retail volumes per capita fell 0.1% q/q, the ninth consecutive quarterly decline. The working age population grew 0.6% q/q in Q3.
- September retail values increased 0.1% m/m, softer than expected but the sixth straight monthly rise leaving the annual rate at 2.3% y/y. 3-month annualised momentum is robust at over 4%. August rose 0.7% m/m helped by warmer weather.
- Last month was driven by restaurants (+0.4%) and household goods (+0.5%) but clothing, department stores and other retailing showed the strongest 3-month momentum, although all major categories are positive.
Australia monthly retail sales A$mn
NZGBS: Closed Cheaper But Mid-Range, Bounce In Bus. Conf.
NZGBs closed mid-range, 2bps cheaper across benchmarks. The NZ-US 10-year yield differential narrowed 1bp to +19bps.
- NZ business confidence jumped further in October as firms factored in an outlook that is likely to include more blockbuster interest-rate cuts. Business confidence rose 5 points to +66 points in October, while firms reported the highest level of activity since March, according to a survey by the ANZ bank. (per DJ)
- New Zealand’s moribund housing market will need a summer sales surge to eat into a backlog of listings if prices are to stage a sustained recovery in 2025, according to ANZ Bank. (per BBG)
- Today’s weekly supply saw solid demand with cover ratios across the three lines ranging from 2.97x to 3.19x.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bear-flattener. Focus now turns to today’s weekly claims, personal income/spending and MNI’s Chicago PMI data.
- Swap rates closed 2bps higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. A cumulative 99bps of easing is priced by February, with 55bps by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Value and Building Permits data.
BONDS: NZ-US 10Y Yield Differential Too High
NZGBs closed mid-range, 2bps cheaper across benchmarks.
- Notably, the NZ-US 10-year yield differential narrowed 1bp to +19bps. This placed the differential slightly above July's low of +13bps, the narrowest level since mid-2021.
- Interestingly, a simple regression analysis over the past year suggests that the 10-year yield differential is about 10bps wider than fair value (+9bps).
- Notably, the regression error has fluctuated within a range of +/- 20bps over the past year, highlighting some variability in the relationship.
- The 1Y3M differential is a proxy for the expected relative policy path over the next 12 months.
Figure 1: NZ-US 10-Year Yield Differential
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
NEW ZEALAND: More Positive Outlook But Pricing Intentions Trending Higher
Business sentiment continues to improve following 75bp of RBNZ easing. October ANZ business confidence rose almost 5 points to 65.7 and the activity outlook 0.6 points to 45.9, both are the highest in over 10 years. Current activity remains depressed but improved 8 points this month. Inflation expectations eased but pricing intentions continued to drift higher, something the RBNZ is likely to monitor.
NZ ANZ business confidence vs outlook
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Pricing intentions eased 0.1pp to 2.8%, while they rose for the fourth straight month with 44% of businesses intending to increase prices, the highest in 6 months. ANZ cautions that there could be some seasonality to the data. Cost expectations fell over 2 points to 64.2% driven by retail and agriculture, but remains elevated. So do wage expectations at 77% up from 76.4%.
NZ ANZ business survey price/cost components
- Export and investment intentions were higher, with both at multi-year highs. Profit expectations increased almost 5 points to 27.0 with a pickup in retailers.
- Employment has begun to recover, except in retail, with it rising almost 4 points compared to a year ago. At -14.6 it remains weak though. Wage increases compared to a year ago were steady at 3% and are expected to ease to 2.6% in 12-months time. ANZ says wages are now where the RBNZ wants them, ie. consistent with the inflation target.
FOREX: Yen Modestly Firmer Post BoJ, Lower Equities/US Yields Help
Modest yen gains have been evident post the on hold BoJ outcome. USD/JPY is back under 153.00, around 0.35% stronger in yen terms. CHF is also modestly stronger, USD/CHF last near 0.8655 (up around 0.15%).
- Cross asset signals have supported the safe havens, with US equity futures in the red led by tech. Nasdaq futures were last off 0.60%, which follows late earning results from Microsoft in Wednesday US trade.
- We also have a downtick in US yields, with the back end off 2bps.
- USD/JPY last tracked near 152.85/90, which is close to recent lows. On Monday the pair dipped briefly under 152.50. 151.46 is the low from Oct 25.
- The BoJ kept rates on hold as expected, but had some hawkish undertones in terms of the statement (even if the 2025 core CPI forecast was nudged down), leaving the rate hike path intact (albeit with uncertainty around timing). Focus will be on Governor Ueda's press conference, and whether Bank has "sufficient time" to watch economic activity and risk developments, and not rule out a rate hike in December at a post-meeting press conference."
- AUD and NZD have been range bound. AUD/USD last near 0.6565/70, while NZD/USD is near 0.5970. We had a host of Australian data earlier, albeit largely second tier. Retail sales for Sep were sub market expectations.
- The China PMIs were better for the manufacturing side, moving back into expansion territory but this had a lasting impact on hgiehr beta FX.
- Later US Q3 ECI, September PCE prices, personal income/spending, October job cuts and jobless claims are released. Also euro area October preliminary CPI and German September retail sales print.
ASIA STOCKS: China & HK Equities Heads Higher, China Mfg PMI Above 50
Chinese and Hong Kong equities are higher today, as investors reacted positively to a report showing Chinese manufacturing data expanding for the first time since April, suggesting that recent stimulus measures may be starting to boost growth momentum in the manufacturing industry. BYD beat Tesla in quarterly revenue for the first time, but its shares slumped as traders focused on weaker net sales per vehicle. Despite mixed corporate earnings, the report on manufacturing uplifted market sentiment in both regions.
- Chinese property developer shares rose for the second consecutive session, driven by optimism following reports that China is considering a 4b yuan special bond issuance to support the struggling sector. The BBG China Property Developer Gauge is 4% higher, Mainland Property Index +2.60% while the CSI 300 Real Estate Index is 2.30% higher.
- Chinese banks posted modest profit gains in Q3 2024, despite challenges from a slowing economy and low margins. ICBC reported a 3.8% profit increase, while Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Bank of China and China Construction Bank saw gains ranging from just above 1% to nearly 6%. Banking stocks were mixed, with the Mainland Banking Index down 0.45%.
- BYD surpassed Tesla in quarterly revenue for the first time, posting $28.2b in sales versus Tesla’s $25.2b, driven by strong demand for its hybrid vehicles. Despite a record net income of $1.6b, Tesla still leads in profitability with $2.2b. BYD's vertically integrated supply chain and dominance in China’s EV market have helped cushion it from global headwinds, positioning it well for continued growth.
- China's Manufacturing PMI for October rose to 50.1, slightly above market expectations of 49.9 and following September's decline of 49.8. The Non-manufacturing PMI also printed at 50.1, up from 50.0 last month. This marks the first expansion after five months of contraction, indicating early positive signs from stimulus measures ahead of next week's National People's Congress.
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Lower As Corporate Earnings Weigh On Sentiment
Asian equities are lower today, heading for their worst monthly performance since August 2023, as concerns over corporate earnings and upcoming US elections weighed on sentiment. Stocks in Japan, Australia, and South Korea fell, contributing to a regional downtrend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 0.4%, driven by declines in Hitachi and SK Hynix.
- Chinese and Hong Kong equities rose, buoyed by Chinese manufacturing data showing unexpected expansion for the first time since April, hinting that recent stimulus efforts may be taking effect. Chinese property developer shares rose for the second consecutive session, driven by optimism following reports that China is considering a 4b yuan special bond issuance to support the struggling sector. The BBG China Property Developer Gauge is 4.20% higher.
- Japanese equities are slightly lower today following concerns over corporate earnings, Hitachi dropped 8% following disappointing guidance, with investors now turning their attention to key earnings from Nomura and Takeda, which are expected this week. There was little surprise from the BoJ's after they kept rates unchanged, the yen was little changed post the announcement.
- South Korea equities are lower today, strong earnings from Samsung did little to push the KOSPI into positive territory, with SK Hynix dropping 3.30%, foreign investors have been selling local stocks with a total outflow of roughly $300m so far today.
ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Continue Selling Asian Equities
Outflows across the board in Asian on Wednesday. Thailand saw a large outflow of $126m, which matches the large inflow of $126m from about two weeks ago, the country has now seen outflows for 23 of the past 24 sessions. Indonesia's outflows are accelerating, while Malaysia saw it's largest outflow since July.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$292m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1.108b. YTD flows remain positive at +$7.669b. The 5-day average is -$222m, worse than the 20-day average of -$185m but better than the 100-day average of -$56m.
- Taiwan: Experienced outflows of -$106m yesterday, totaling -$460m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$10.866b. The 5-day average is -$92m, worse than the 20-day average of -$14m and the 100-day average of -$136m.
- India: Saw outflows of -$106m yesterday, with a total outflow of -$1.886b over the past 5 days. YTD inflows stand at +$867m. The 5-day average is -$377m, worse than the 20-day average of -$508m but better than the 100-day average of +$28m.
- Indonesia: Posted outflows of -$91m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$208m. YTD flows remain positive at +$2.552b. The 5-day average is -$42m, slightly worse than the 20-day average of -$34m but better than the 100-day average of +$30m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$127m yesterday, totaling -$213m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3.413b. The 5-day average is -$43m, better than the 20-day average of -$42m but worse than the 100-day average of -$11m.
- Malaysia: Experienced outflows of -$79m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day outflow of -$185m. YTD flows stand at +$502m. The 5-day average is -$37m, worse than the 20-day average of -$14m but better than the 100-day average of +$6m.
- Philippines: Saw outflows of -$10m yesterday, with net outflows of -$31m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are positive at +$66m. The 5-day average is -$6m, worse than the 20-day average of +$1m but better than the 100-day average of +$5m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Crude Gradually Trending Higher, Upcoming Event/Data Risk
Oil prices are moderately higher today driven by a crude inventory drawdown in the US last week. With the geopolitical risk premium unwinding, focus has returned to supply/demand fundamentals. There are also growing expectations that OPEC will push out its planned supply increase into 2025. But the Middle East continues to be monitored closely as little has been resolved. The USD index is slightly higher.
- WTI is 0.6% higher at $69.01 after a low of around $68.75, while the Brent January contract is up 0.5% to $72.55/bbl after falling to about $72.35.
- Rystad Energy believes that OPEC won’t begin to gradually increase output in December as planned, as the group is “making huge money” at current levels (BBG).
- EIA reported crude inventories fell 515k last week after a 5.47mn build. Gasoline fell 2.71mn and distillate 977k. Refinery utilisation was down 0.4pp to 89.1%.
- Friday’s US October payrolls are an important data point for oil as it refocuses on the demand outlook. Tuesday’s US election and next week’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meeting in China will also be focal points.
- Later US Q3 ECI, September PCE prices, personal income/spending, October job cuts and jobless claims are released. Also euro area October preliminary CPI and German September retail sales print.
GOLD: A New All-Time High Despite Higher US Yields
Gold is steady in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing at a new all-time high of 2787.61, 0.5% higher, on Wednesday.
- Gold climbed to a record, boosted by haven demand and shrugging off data that could influence the size of Fed rate cuts this year. Lower rates are typically positive for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
- US Treasury yields finished with a bear-flattener following stronger-than-expected ADP jobs data. The ADP jobs gain for October was 233k (cons 111k), its strongest monthly print since Jul’23. The data also came with an upward revision to the prior, 159k versus 143k.
- The US economy expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in the September quarter, underpinned by strong consumer spending, which grew by 3.7% and is the fastest pace in over a year. The core PCE deflator increased 2.2% in Q3, marginally above expectations, but still representing a significant slowing from the 3.3% average in the first half of 2024.
- Meanwhile, US pending home sales printed stronger than expected with the best single monthly increase since June 2020.
- Focus now turns to today’s weekly claims, personal income/spending and MNI’s Chicago PMI data, not to mention Friday's October employment data and next Tuesday's Presidential Election.
CHINA: Vice Chairman of Think Tank Expects New Stimulus in Next Week’s Budget.
- China’s general public spending increased by 2% in the nine months to September whilst government spending declined by 9%, noted Wang Yiming at the Greater Bay Area Finance Forum in Shenzhen hosted jointly by the Renmin University and the IMF.
- This 7% differential could see an adjustment to the national budget plan by at least CNY1.5 yet Wang of the China Centre for International Economic Exchange suggested that new issuance has potential to be far in excess of that.
- He noted that the ‘monetary easing package announced by the PBOC at the end of September has played a crucial role in boosting market confidence. However without follow up fiscal support, the recent market rally may prove difficult to sustain.”
- The IMF has recently cut its forecast for GDP growth in China to 4.8%, below the target set by the government.
- Next week the meeting of the National People's Congress begins where lawmakers may address the budget shortfall and announce new funding and issuance targets.
CHINA: Manufacturing PMI Unexpectedly Expands in October.
- China’s Manufacturing PMI for October printed at 50.1.
- Following on from September’s decline of 49.8, market expectations were a print of 49.9.
- Non-manufacturing PMI printed at 50.1.
- This followed last month’s print of 50.0.
- Following five months of contracting, today’s expansion will be welcome news ahead of next week’s National People's Congress and suggests early positive signs from stimulus measures.
SOUTH KOREA: Chip Production Stalls in Warning Sign for the Economy.
- Production in South Korea’s semi-conductor manufacturers declined for the first time in a year according to the Statistical Office of the Government.
- Semiconductor production output declined 3% in September.
- This followed an +11% increase the month prior.
- The growth in production and exports has been driven by the boom in Artificial Intelligence development globally.
- Semiconductors are the biggest contributors to export output for South Korea and the BOK will be monitors this data carefully.
- Having warned of the need to revise growth downward, the BOK will be mindful when looking to 2025’s forecast that the moderating of demand could point to a peak in the A.I cycle.
ASIA FX: CNH Sees Little Benefit From PMI Beat, KRW Steady
It has been a quiet day for North East Asia FX markets. USD/CNH has drifted a little higher, last near 7.1300, unwinding some of yesterday's modest yuan gains. Taiwan markets have been closed, while the won has been relatively steady.
- The official China PMIs for Oct printed. The manufacturing outcome surprised on the upside, to 50.1 versus 49.9 forecast and 49.8 prior. This is the first expansion month since April of this year. The service PMI also stayed in expansion territory at 50.2, albeit slightly below expectations. Given the seasonal headwinds in Oct (from the National Day holidays), these prints are a positive result.
- USD/CNH has edged back above 7.1300 though. Recent lows in USD/CNH rest just under 7.1250. With near term focus still potentially resting on US data outcomes and next week's election in the US. We also have the early Nov Politburo meeting.
- Spot USD/KRW is a little lower, last near 1379. Intra-session lows from Wednesday came in at 1374.45. Onshore equities are off over 1% so far today, but hasn't impact local FX sentiment. Sep industrial production was weaker than forecast, amid a slowdown in chip production. This adds to economic slowdown fears.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 31/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Retail Sales |
| 31/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 31/10/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (p) |
| 31/10/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | PPI |
| 31/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** |  EU | HICP (p) |
| 31/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** |  EU | Unemployment |
| 31/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** |  IT | HICP (p) |
| 31/10/2024 | 1000/1000 |  GB | BOE's Breeden speech on emerging technologies | |
| 31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Jobless Claims |
| 31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Employment Cost Index |
| 31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Payroll employment |
| 31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 31/10/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** |  US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 31/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** |  US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 31/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 31/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** |  US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 01/11/2024 | 2200/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | * |  AU | Producer price index q/q |
| 01/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** |  AU | Lending Finance Details |
| 01/11/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/11/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** |  CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/11/2024 | 0730/0830 | *** |  CH | CPI |
| 01/11/2024 | 0730/0830 | ** |  CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/11/2024 | - | *** |  US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/11/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Employment Report |
| 01/11/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** |  US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |