- The USD has traded lower in the first part of Monday dealings, amid carry over from Friday's phone call between Xi & Trump. The market is focused on any signs of improved relations between the two economies. Trump also reportedly stated over the weekend a desire to visit China.
- US Tsy futures have been quiet today ahead of the inauguration and with cash Tsy trading closed for Martin Luther King day.
- As expected, the China LPRs were left unchanged, while Japan core machine orders posted an upside surprise.
- Later the Eurogroup meeting takes place and German December PPI, euro area November construction and the BoC business survey are released.
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Trade In Narrow Ranges Ahead Of Inauguration
- Unsurprisingly tsys futures have been very quiet today, we have traded in narrow ranges however right now trade off session lows with TU unchanged at 102-23+, while TY is -01¼ at 108-15+
- The medium-term trend in futures remains bearish, however Wednesday’s gains and Thursday’s follow through, highlight a stronger S/T corrective cycle. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 108-17. This exposes 109-06, the Dec 31 high, and 109-18+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The bear trigger has been defined at 107-06, the Jan 13 low.
- Donald Trump plans to sign over 200 executive orders on Day 1, focusing on immigration, energy, deregulation, and government reforms. Key actions include declaring a border emergency, resuming border wall construction, reversing Biden-era energy policies, pausing offshore wind leases, and reinstating merit-based federal hiring. Additional measures include withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, suspending security clearances for officials linked to the Hunter Biden laptop story, and imposing a "DOGE" hiring freeze, per Fox News.
- It is Martin Luther King day today, so no cash tsys trading or data. Focus will be squaring on the Inauguration of President Trump and any executive orders he signs on day 1, while corporate earnings are to kick off on Tuesday.
JGBS: Cash Bonds Modestly Richer, 40Y Supply Tomorrow, BoJ Decision On Fri
JGB futures are firmer and at session highs, +10 compared to settlement levels.
- In November, core machine orders data significantly exceeded expectations. Additionally, both Industrial Production (year-over-year) and Capacity Utilization (month-over-month) showed improvement, although both metrics remain in negative territory. However, the Tertiary Industry Index for November declined by 0.3% month-over-month, falling short of the estimated 0.1% growth.
- The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates on Friday barring any market shocks when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office, a move that would lift short-term borrowing costs to levels unseen since the 2008 global financial crisis.
- A tightening in policy would underscore the central bank's resolve to steadily push up interest rates, now at 0.25%, to near 1% - a level analysts see as neither cooling nor overheating Japan's economy. (per RTRS)
- The cash US tsy market and stock exchanges are closed today for Martin L. King Day. Also noteworthy, the Federal Reserve entered its policy blackout at midnight Friday through January 30.
- Cash JGBs are 1-2bps richer across benchmarks beyond the 1-year. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.7bps lower at 1.196% versus the cycle high of 1.262%.
- Swap rates are 1-2bps lower. Swap spreads are little changed.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see 40-year supply.
JAPAN DATA: Core Machine Orders Paint Positive Capex Backdrop
Japan Nov core machine orders data comfortably beat expectations. We were up 3.4%m/m, versus -0.8% forecast (prior was +2.1%). In y/y terms we rose 10.3%, against a 4.2% forecast (prior as 5.6%).
- The +10%y/y print for core machine orders was back close to 2024 highs. Momentum recovered strongly through Q4 and was mostly ahead of market expectations. In terms of the detail, the non-core items were quite volatile (which is typically the case). In y/y terms, manufacturing orders were 15.3% y/y, versus 7.6% prior. Non-manufacturing was 6.8% from 27.7% in Oct.
- The chart below overlays this print against Japan capex spending (ex Software) in y/y terms. It suggests a firm capex backdrop prevailed into year end for Japan.
- This isn't a key watch point for the BoJ, with wages and inflation more in focus, but still will be welcomed ahead of Friday's policy outcome. It is a sign of a resilient economic backdrop.
Fig 1: Japan Core Machine Orders (White Line) versus Japan Capex, Ex Software (Y/Y)
AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session, Strong Demand For Green Bond
ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +0.5) are slightly stronger after a subdued session.
- The local market has lacked direction with the local calendar empty and cash US tsys out for Martin L. King Day.
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp richer.
- Swap rates are 1bp lower.
- The bills strip is flat to -1 across contracts.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is fully priced for April (102%), with the probability of a February cut at 62% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
- The local calendar is light this week after key December labour market data last Thursday. The highlights are the Westpac Leading Index on Wednesday and S&P Global PMIs (P) on Friday. The focus is now on Q4 CPI data released on Wednesday, January 29.
- Today's sale of the A$300mn of the 4.25% 21 June 2034 green bond drew a cover ratio of 5.18x, the highest on record for the green bond.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.
AUSTRALIA: Data Continue To Point To Stall In Labour Market Easing
In its December meeting minutes, the RBA said “a variety of labour market indicators could be signalling that progress in the labour market moving closer to its full employment level had stalled”. The December monthly labour market data were generally consistent with this statement with employment up 3.1% y/y and underemployment continuing to trend lower.
- The RBA previously pointed out that it looks at other variables, not just employment and the unemployment rate.
- Underemployment trended lower over the second half of 2024 falling 0.7pp from the May peak to 6.0% in December. Signs that employees are working fewer hours than they would like would generally lead any drop in employment. The decline in underemployment is consistent with Governor Bullock’s view that layoffs are unlikely.
Australia unemployment vs underemployment rates %
- Hours worked rose 0.5% m/m and 3.2% y/y, highest since July 2023, in December up from flat and 2.1% y/y. In Q4 they posted their third straight quarterly increase at 0.6% q/q, slower than Q3’s +0.8% though. The continued rise in hours is good news for households but is likely to mean that productivity remained lacklustre in Q4, an ongoing concern for the RBA.
Australia hours worked %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- The youth unemployment rate is seen as a lead indicator of the labour market as a whole. The data is volatile and December rose 0.4pp but the Q4 average was 0.6pp lower than Q3 at 9.0%.
- Q4 vacancies rose 4.2% q/q, the first increase since Q2 2022, resulting in the ratio to unemployment rising almost 4pp. It has eased considerably from the post-Covid high but remains around 20pp above the historical average. SEEK monthly new job ads weren’t as optimistic though with both October and November falling leaving the level down 8.4% y/y in November.
- NAB’s measure of availability of suitable labour had been improving but also appears to have stalled.
BONDS: NZGBS: Subdued Session Ahead Of Q4 CPI On Wed
In local morning trade, NZGBs closed flat to 2bps cheaper, with a flatter curve, on a subdued day of trading with cash US tsys out for Martin L. King Day. US Tsy futures (TYH5) is trading at 108-15, -0-02+ from closing levels.
- Swap rates finished unchanged.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing close flat to 4bps firmer. 46bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 106bps by November 2025.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index and Card Spending data. The PSI rose to 49.5 in November, the highest since February.
- However, the focus of the week will be Wednesday’s Q4 CPI data which is forecast to show moderation in headline and non-tradeables inflation.
- Headline returned to the RBNZ’s 1-3% band in Q3 and is expected to ease 0.1pp to 2.1% y/y posting a 0.5% q/q rise in Q4. The RBNZ forecasted 0.4% q/q & 2.1% y/y in November. Non-tradeables are projected to rise 0.8% q/q which would result in the annual rate moderating to around 4.7% y/y from 4.9%.
- November net migration prints on Thursday. Initial readings have tended to be revised down over H2 2024 as immigration slows. The softening labour market has discouraged people moving to NZ and encouraged New Zealanders to shift to Australia.
FOREX: USD Weaker As Markets Await Trump Inauguration, Recent Ranges Holding
The USD is weaker across the board against all of G10 FX. The BBDXY index is around 0.25% softer, last near 1313. Recent lows in the index (1306.74) are still intact to the downside. We are seeing a slight outperformance trend from higher beta plays.
- Sentiment appears to be on the improve due to carry from Trump and Xi's phone call on Friday. The market grabbing onto any sense of better relations between the two countries. Trump also reportedly told his advisors that he would like to travel to China (per the WSJ over the weekend).
- Regional equity markets are mostly firmer, with Hong Kong the best performer, likely aided the FX risk mood. US equity futures are down but only slightly and this follows strong cash gains on Friday. There is no US cash Tsy trading today due to Martin L. King Day later in the US. Tsy futures are slightly softer.
- NZD/USD is up nearly 0.50%, last near the 0.5610/15 area. Recent highs at 0.5651 remain intact. For AUD/USD we are lagging slightly, up close to 0.35%, last near 0.6215 (likewise recent highs at 0.6246 haven't been breached. USD/CNH is sub 7.3300 and below its 20-day EMA support point.
- USD/JPY is back under 156.00, but Friday lows under 155.00 haven't been threatened at this stage. EUR/USD is up 0.30%, last near 1.0305. SEK has gained 0.40%, while GBP is back above 1.2200.
- Looking ahead, it is a relatively quiet start to the week data wise. We have the German ZEW, some ECB speak, along with UK Labor data. In Canada, the CPI prints.
FOREX: Mixed CFTC Trends, Leveraged Longs In GBP Slashed
In the week ending 14th of Jan (last Tuesday), CFTC positioning flows were mixed across leveraged and asset managers. In the leveraged space, GBP longs were trimmed notably. GBP has been an underperformer since the start of the year (down along with CAD), while other G10 currencies are higher YTD), as twin deficit/financial stability concerns weigh on the pound. Still, leveraged investors can cut GBP longs further. Asset managers cut GBP shorts, albeit modestly, and comfortably maintain an outright short.
- Yen positions saw little shift from a leveraged standpoint, but asset managers added to shorts.
- For the AUD, leveraged names added to shorts, but asset managers provided some offset (although remain outright short).
- The table below for the full break down and changes in the week to 14th of Jan.
Table: CFTC Positioning By Currency & Investor Type (Week Ending Jan 14 2025)
| Leveraged Contracts | Asset manager Contracts | |||
| Weekly Change | Outright Position | Weekly Change | Outright Position | |
| JPY | 781 | -52381 | -10530 | -20109 |
| EUR | 1789 | -39799 | 6613 | 157876 |
| GBP | -12439 | 34874 | 2853 | -55229 |
| AUD | -5251 | -39039 | 4488 | -38358 |
| NZD | -560 | -14107 | -336 | -40779 |
| CAD | 6523 | -88056 | 5247 | -155048 |
| CHF | 1477 | -8331 | -4695 | -40757 |
| MXN | -3100 | -9175 | -5282 | 1663 |
Source: CFTC/BBG/MNI - Market News
ASIA STOCKS: China & Hong Kong Equities Rallies Follow Trump & Xi Jinping Call
China and Hong Kong equities are rallying, buoyed by optimism over improved US-China relations following a positive pre-inauguration call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The CSI 300 Index rose as much as 1.2%, led by gains in tech stocks like Shengyi Technology (+8.9%) and Eoptolink Tech (+7.4%). In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is 2.3% higher, while the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 3.25%, with e-commerce giants JD.com (+5.8%) and Alibaba (+3%) driving the rally.
- The market also reacted to China leaving its loan prime rates unchanged, with the one-year rate at 3.1% and the five-year rate at 3.6%. Education shares advanced after government guidance promoting AI and stricter curriculum controls, with New Oriental Education & Technology rising 6%. Additionally, reports of re-lending facilities supporting A-share buybacks have boosted sentiment, benefiting privately-run firms.
- Traders aggressively bought call options on Chinese stock-linked ETFs like FXI and KWEB on Friday, driven by optimism over a positive Trump-Xi call signaling potential easing in trade tensions. This activity pushed one-month implied volatility on FXI to its highest since mid-December, with bullish bets also driving significant gains in both ETFs.
- Overall, the markets are balancing optimism with caution over potential trade tariffs under Trump's incoming administration.
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Head Higher As US-China Tensions Ease
Asian markets traded higher today, driven by optimism over easing US-China tensions following a positive call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%, with notable gains in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index climbed 2.3%, and mainland Chinese shares also advanced. Japanese stocks rebounded, with the Topix Index posting its biggest intraday jump since early December, as tech and financial shares gained on expectations of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike. Broader sentiment was supported by hopes for improved US-China trade relations, though concerns about Trump's upcoming policies, including tariffs and deregulation, tempered enthusiasm.
- South Korean equities have struggled today with political uncertainty seen as the major driver, the KOSPI last trades 0.20% lower. Foreign investors had been better buyers of South Korean equities to kick the year off, however we another day of over $200m of outflows we are now effectively flat in terms of net flows.
- Indian equities have seen heavy outflows totaling $4.5b to start the year, the Nifty 50 is trading up 0.20% today as earnings season kicks off.
- Equities in Australia & New Zealand have been mixed today, the ASX20 trades up 0.45%, while the NZX 50 closed 0.30% lower.
- US equity futures are trading slightly lower in Asia Today, please note there will be no cash equity trading tonight for Martin Luther King Day. Focus will be largely on the Inauguration of Trump and any executive orders he may sign on Day 1.
ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Were Heavy Sellers Of Asian Equities Last Week
India continues to see heavy outflows with $4.5b in outflows to kick the year off. South Korea saw net outflows last week, however is the only region with a net inflow for the year.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$213m Friday, contributing to a 5-day total of -$479m. YTD flows remain positive at +$288m. The 5-day average is -$96m, worse than the 20-day average of -$22m but better than the 100-day average of -$154m.
- Taiwan: Posted inflows of +$376m Friday, leading to a 5-day total of -$1.56b. YTD flows are negative at -$2.16b. The 5-day average is -$312m, worse than the 20-day average of -$129m and the 100-day average of -$125m.
- India: Registered outflows of -$502m Thursday, resulting in a 5-day total of -$2.57b. YTD flows are deeply negative at -$4.53b. The 5-day average is -$514m, worse than the 20-day average of -$300m and the 100-day average of -$72m.
- Indonesia: Recorded inflows of +$15m Friday, with a 5-day total of +$15m. YTD flows remain negative at -$166m. The 5-day average is +$3m, better than the 20-day average of -$17m and matching the 100-day average of +$3m.
- Thailand: Posted outflows of -$37m Friday, contributing to a 5-day total of -$160m. YTD flows are negative at -$222m. The 5-day average is -$32m, worse than the 20-day average of -$13m but slightly worse than the 100-day average of -$8m.
- Malaysia: Saw outflows of -$48m Friday, leading to a 5-day total of -$295m. YTD flows are negative at -$429m. The 5-day average is -$59m, worse than the 20-day average of -$27m and the 100-day average of -$17m.
- Philippines: Registered outflows of -$2m Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$57m. YTD flows are negative at -$81m. The 5-day average is -$11m, worse than the 20-day average of -$7m and the 100-day average of -$1m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Crude Little Changed As Awaits Direction From The US
Oil is close to flat during APAC trading today with Brent around $80.70/bbl after an intraday low of $80.76 and WTI $77.44 following a drop to $77.25/bbl. US President-elect Trump said he’ll declare a national energy emergency to unlock powers, but the impact of his administration on oil prices remains unclear. The USD index is down 0.3%.
- Trump wants to use a “national energy emergency” to be able to increase domestic oil and gas production and reverse Biden’s climate change policies, according to Bloomberg. Uncertainty remains elevated though with no details on how this declaration would be used or its impact on domestic and global markets or if he will even be able to use it. Thus, there has been little market response to the news.
- In response to questions on the issue, Trump said on Sunday “we’re going to be using our emergency powers to allow countries and entrepreneurs and people with a lot of money build big plants, AI plants, ... We need double the energy that we already have”.
- Action on sanctions against Iran and Russia and tariffs on Canada, a large oil supplier to the US, are also significant uncertainties that oil markets are awaiting direction on. The Treasury secretary nominee Bessent has indicated that measures against Russia should be tightened.
- The US is closed for the Martin Luther King holiday but attention is on President-elect Trump’s inauguration later today and which executive orders he’ll sign on the first day.
- Later the Eurogroup meeting takes place and German December PPI, euro area November construction and the BoC business survey are released.
Gold Off Lows as World Watches Inauguration.
- Having softened into Friday’s close, gold opened lower today, trending down in the morning session.
- Closing at US$2,703.25 on Friday, gold trended down to $2,689.47 before rebounding in the afternoon, above key technical levels to be at $2705.40.
- The weaker than expected US inflation release last week gave hope to interest rate cuts by investors, boosting gold’s fortunes and ensuring a third week in a row of gains.
- Gold had an excellent 2024 in the back of expectations for interest rate cuts and resumption of purchases by key Global Central Banks and a report by the World Gold Council forecasts that this trend will continue in 2025.
- Gold is sensitive to interest rate changes and with the outlook for the FED at the next meeting still unclear, data releases will be a key input into gold's near term direction as it tracks the probability of a FED cut.
- The incoming President’s proposed policies present a mixed headwind for gold with increased geo-political risk could increase demand for gold’s safe haven status, whilst said policies may also ignite the USD which traditionally is challenging for gold.
- In a recent research report released by State Street Global Advisors, it projects gold bullion to hit US$3,100 in 2025 (as per BBG).
CHINA: Prime Rates Unchanged with Eyes on NPC in March.
- As widely anticipated, China left the 1 and 5 year loan prime rates on hold today at 3.10% and 3.60% respectively.
- The rates are determined by a commercial bank panel and provides an insight into the thinking of lenders, prior to the National People's Congress in March.
- With a move to a more accommodative stance, what is likely is a wait and see approach as to the policy is interpreted and the actions that are to come out of the NPC before any move in monetary policy.
- For that reason, and with Lunar New Year holidays imminent, there was no need for commercial banks to alter their lending rates at a time when activity is muted.
- Actions to watch post the NPC will be any changes to the reverse repo rate and or RRR cuts, though given the improving nature of data witnessed last week, it appears there may be no rush in rate cuts.
- The Lunar New Year holidays sees China out Jan 28-Feb 04 inclusive.
CNY: USD/CNY Option Strike Expiries Clustered At 7.50-7.60 This Week
USD/CNH has stabilized somewhat, still up around 0.25% in CNH terms, but holding above 7.3200. Implied vols are ticking higher. Overnight implied is above 11%, elevated but sub cycle highs back to Nov last year (near 35%). It's a similar story for other tenors, with 1 week above 7.7%, while 1 month is near 6.57%. The 6 month is at 6.67%, closer to recent cycle highs around 7%.
- In the risk reversal space, the recent bias has been to trend higher, with the USD favoured for longer dated tenors, with RRs sitting in positive territory 2 months and beyond. Like the implied vol space though, we remain sub recent extremes in terms of recent highs.
- These biases likely reflect market uncertainty around potential new US trade policies and the broader US/Fed and China macro outlooks. The timing and size of any potential tariff announcements is uncertain, but at this juncture the broader USD backdrop is still viewed favorably, given US growth and Fed dynamics, particularly relative to China (where the central bank still has a modest easing bias.
- For the near term, the chart below plots option expiry strikes (by volumes) for the coming week, per DTCC (via BBG). The yellow line is current spot levels. For 7.5000 and 7.6000, there is just over $2.6bn in volumes for these strike levels, dominated by calls. Next is 7.4500, then 8.00.
- On the downside, 6.85 puts have just over $1bn in volumes expiring over the next week.
- Again, the right hand tail of the option expiries relative to current spot matches with market concern around early tariff rises and a break higher in USD/CNY spot.
Fig 1: USD/CNY Option Expiries For the Next Week
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MALAYSIA: Impressive Trade Rebound May Have Unwelcome Side Effect.
- Delivering significant Trade surpluses at a time when the incoming US President is focused on tariffs may be an unwelcome side effect in the current climate.
- Malaysia’s December trade numbers were impressive with exports up +16.9% (from a revised +3.9% prior) and imports up +11.9% (from a +1.6% prior).
- This delivered a trade surplus of MYR19.18bn for December, following the MYR15.05bn for November.
- Electronic exports jumped +27.8%, manufactured metal +25.2% and machinery / appliances +16.3%
- Electronic imports jumped 31.5%, machinery +31.1% whilst steel imports declined -11%.
- The rise in exports was the largest month on month expansion since 2022 and the value of trade recorded the highest ever.
- The BNM meets this week on the 22nd, just days after the inauguration of the US President and market expectations are for no change in monetary policy.
ASIA FX: SEA FX Firmer, But Lagging Some North East Asia FX Gains
South East Asia FX trends have been relatively muted in the first part of Monday trade, albeit with a slight bias for USD weakness. THB, MYR and PHP are all up around 0.20% against the USD, in line with broader USD index shifts, but lagging some parts of North East Asia like the won and TWD. The USD softened in response to a phone call between China President Xi and incoming US President Trump. NEA currencies may be seen to benefit from any reduced trade tensions compared to SEA.
- USD/MYR is back sub 4.5000, but has exhibited tight ranges, as has been the case in recent weeks. Earlier data showed an improved trade balance position, led by stronger export growth. The BNM is seen on hold this week.
- THB is tracking a little lower, last near 34.35/40. This is fresh lows in the pair back to early January. The pair is close to the 50-day EMA near 34.34. We are sub other key EMAs, albeit just. Earlier the Thailand industries sentiment index fell to 90.1 from 91.4, its first drop in 3 months.
- USD/PHP is around 58.45/50, continuing to track recent ranges. USD/SGD is lower, last near 1.3650, we have CPI data Thursday, then the MAS decision on Friday.
- USD/IDR is little changed, last near 16360, continuing to lag broader USD trends post last week's surprise BI cut.
INDIA: Country Wrap: RBI to use Swaps to Manage Liquidity.
- RBI likely to use long-term buy-sell currency swaps for effective liquidity management: SBI Research (source: Hindustan Times).
- India's foreign exchange reserves hit 10 month low at $625 billion (source: BBG).
- India’s NIFTY 50 is starting the week off positively up +0.25%, following last week’s decline of nearly 1%.
- INR: Rupee is getting support from the positive day from regional peers and is up +0.14% at 86.49.
- Bonds: India’s 10YR finished last week at 6.76%, marginally lower in yield.
SOUTH KOREA: Country Wrap: BOK Lowers Growth Outlook.
- Bank of Korea says 2025 GDP growth is likely to be around 1.6-1.7%, lower than Nov. forecast of 1.9% on political risks and weakening sentiment, according to a central bank statement. (source: BBG).
- South Korean government announced plans to provide export financing of 360t won this year to help boost exports amid uncertainties in the global trade environment with the start of Trump administration, finance ministry says in a statement. (source: BBG).
- The KOSPI was the regional underperformer today down -0.12% as regional peers all had a positive day.
- KRW: the currency was one of the best performers in the region up +0.575% ti 1,449.35.
- Bonds: front end yields were lower today with the KTB 10YR 2.836% (+2bp).
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 20/01/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** |  JP | Industrial Production |
| 20/01/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | PPI |
| 20/01/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** |  EU | Construction Production |
| 20/01/2025 | - | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting | |
| 20/01/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** |  CA | BOC Business Outlook Survey |
| 21/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** |  GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 21/01/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 21/01/2025 | - | EU | ECB's De Guindos in ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 21/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 21/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |