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MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - The US markets return to the fray on Tuesday and there is a
full data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic.
     The European calendar kicks off at 0545GMT, with the release of the Swiss
GDP, followed by the Swiss CPI numbers at 0715GMT.
     The euro area and composite PMI data will also be released Tuesday,
starting with the Spanish data at 0715GMT. The Italian numbers will be released
at 0745GMT, followed by France at 0750GMT, Germany at 0755GMT and the euro area
at 0800GMT.
     The UK services PMI will be released at 0830GMT.
     The UK Services PMI will have almost slipped in August, falling back to the
level set in June, erasing virtually all of July's marginal gain, a Market News
survey shows. The headline index expected to have fallen to in 53.5 in August,
0.1 point above June's outturn.
     Service sector activity, as measured by the IHS Markit/CIPS Service
Purchasing Managers' Index, increased marginally in July after slipping to a
four-month low in June. The index rose by 0.4 points to 53.8 in July.
     While above the neutral-50 mark, and thus indicating a somewhat solid
expansion within the sector, the outturn was below the post-crisis trend and
there was evidence from survey respondents of clients, irked by potential
economic developments, and households, with incomes stretched amid rising
prices, reluctant to spend.
     Of the 17 analysts polled, only two expect business activity to have
quickened in August. Three expect to see no change while the remaining 12 pencil
in a drop of some magnitude.
     The UK Parliament returns Tuesday after the summer recess.
     The late morning European data sees the latest retail sales published at
0900GMT.
     Across the Atlantic, at 1200GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard
will speak at the Economic Club of New York in New York City, with audience Q&A.
     The first US data release comes at 1345GMT, when the ISM-NY Manufacturing
Index.
     At 1400GMT, the latest US factory new orders data and the employment trends
index will be published.
     Factory orders are expected to fall by 3.1% in July. Durable goods orders
fell 6.8% in the month on a plunge in aircraft orders, while nondurables orders
are expected to post a modest gain after falling in the previous two months.
Factory orders are expected to be up 0.2% excluding transportation. Durable
orders excluding transportation were up 0.5%.
     Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will speak at a
moderated Q&A at the 1st Tuesday Speaker Series at Carlson School of Management
in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A., starting at 1710GMT.
     Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan will participate in a
moderated Q&A session in Dallas, with audience Q&A, starting at 2300GMT.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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