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MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Friday sees a busy day on both sides of the Atlantic, with a
raft of data and the Eurogroup meeting in Tallinn, Estonia.
     Alongside Euro area finance ministers, ECB President Mario Draghi and ECB
Executive Board member Benoit Coeure will participate in Tallinn.
     The European data calendar kicks off at 0700GMT, with the release of the
Spanish labour cost data.
     At 0815GMT, ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger will take
place in an exchange of views at Eurofi Financial Forum 2017 "What way forward
for the EU27 and Eurozone?"
     Following Thursday's BOE policy decision to keep both rates and the stock
of QE unchanged, MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe will speak in London.
     Eurostat will publish the latest Euro area labour costs and trade data at
     Across the Atlantic, the US data calendar will kick off at 1230GMT, with
the release of the US retail sales numbers and the Empire State Manufacturing
     Empire State index is expected to fall back to a still-strong reading of
19.0 in September after surging to 25.2 in August.
     Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% in August after a surprise 0.6%
increase in July, as auto sales were soft in part due to the hurricane-affected
areas. The impact of Hurricane Harvey at the end of the month should be seen in
several retail categories, but the real impact will likely be seen with
September data. AAA reported that gasoline prices rose in mid-August from one
month earlier after declines in recent months, which should offer some support
to the ex-motor vehicles number, which is seen rising 0.5%.
     At the same time, the Canadian CREA home sales and household debt to income
numbers will be published.
     The US industrial production numbers will cross the wire at 1315GMT.
     Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% in August after a 0.2% gain
in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 36,000 in August, while auto
production jobs rose by 14,000 and the factory workweek declined to 40.7 hours
from 40.9 hours in July. The ISM production index rose to 61.0 in August from
60.6 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to softer in the
month after a 1.6% July gain, as cooler weather reduced electricity use, while
mining production is forecast to weaken after rising in the previous four
months. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.8% from 76.7% in July.
     At 1345GMT, ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio will give the concluding
remarks at the ECB Workshop "Monetary Policy in non-Standard Times", in
     The US July business inventories, BLS state employment data and the
September University of Michigan Sentiment Index will be published at 1400GMT.
     Business inventories are expected to rise 0.2% in July, in line with an MNI
calculation. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.2% in the month,
while wholesale inventories rose 0.6% and the advance report pointed to a 0.2%
decline for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a
0.2% increase for business inventories. As for sales, factory shipments were up
0.3% and wholesale sales fell 0.1%, while retail trade sales rose 0.6% in the
advance retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.3% gain in
business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales number.
     The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to fall to 96.0 in
early September from 96.8 in August, with the impact of Hurricane Harvey seen in
the data.
     Late on, at 1500GMT, the St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast will be released,
followed by the NY Fed GDP Nowcast at 1515GMT.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |

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