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MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - There is a heavy data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic
Thursday, with the German Ifo Index and the UK GDP 2nd estimate likely to be the
stand outs in early trade.
     The European calendar gets underway at 0745GMT, with a host of French data
expected, including the Services and manufacturing sentiment data, the business
climate index and the final French January inflation data.
     At 0900GMT, Italian industrial orders and the German Ifo business climate
index are set for publication.
     In the UK, the UK GDP data and the index of services will be released at
0930GMT. The preliminary estimate of UK fourth quarter GDP placed output growth
unrevised at 0.5% over the quarter, 0.1 of a percentage point higher than that
recorded in Q3. This week's release will give us the expenditure breakdown so
alongside any meaningful revisions to the output components eyes will be primed
for how household spending, net trade and business investment fared between
October and December. Of the fourteen analysts polled thus far, all saw growth
unrevised at 0.5 q/q. Expected annual growth was also unchanged at 1.5% y/y.
     At 1000GMT, Italian final January inflation will be published.
     Back in the UK, at 1100GMT, the February CBI Distributive Trades data will
be released.
     At the same time, Bundesbank Board member Joachim Wuermeling participates
in a discussion at High-level conference on sustainable finance, in Berlin.
     The latest US jobless claims data will be released at 1330GMT.
     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to remain at 230,000 in the
February 17 employment survey week after a rebound of 7,000 in the previous
week. Claims were at a level of 216,000 in the January 13 survey week, a
decades-low level. The four-week moving average would fall by only 250 in the
coming week, as the 231,000 level in the January 20 week drops out of the
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
     At the same time, Canadian retail sales data will cross the wires.
     Back in Europe, at 1400GMT, the BNB Business Sentiment index will be
published.
     The US January leading indicators will be published at 1500GMT. The index
of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 0.6% in January, maintaining the
string of solid gains. Positive contributions are expected from a strong jump in
building permits, higher stock prices, falling jobless claims and rising
consumer expectations.
     The weekly Natural Gas Stocks data will be released at 1530GMT, with the
DOE weekly crude oil stocks data expected at 1600GMT.
     Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks at the 2018
Banking Outlook Conference in Atlanta, with audience Q&A, starting at 1710GMT.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan participates in a moderated Q&A
at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade: Beyond NAFTA? Safeguarding our Trading
Relationship in Vancouver, with audience and media Q&A, starting at 2030GMT.
     Late US data sees the Fed's Weekly M2 Money Supply Data published at
2130GMT.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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