MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

3 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Bulls Need Close Above 163.31

*RES 4: 163.31 High June 29

*RES 3: 163.13 55-DMA

*RES 2: 163.12 100-DMA

*RES 1: 162.97 High Aug 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.82

*SUP 1: 162.63 Low Aug 2

*SUP 2: 162.50 High July 27 now support

*SUP 3: 162.07 Hourly support Aug 1

*SUP 4: 161.72 Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: Layers of resistance remain 162.97-163.31 where the 55-WMA, 55 &

100-DMAs are situated. Bulls need a close above 163.31 to confirm a break ant

shift initial focus to tests of 164.13 June 16 lows. Hesitation ahead of the key

resistance region is less than ideal for bulls. In saying that, bears still need

a close below 162.50 to ease pressure on key MAs and below 162.07 to shift focus

back to 161.02-70 where the 21-DMA is noted.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) 100-DMA Capping, 132.23-30 Support Key

*RES 4: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 3: 132.85 High June 26 

*RES 2: 132.48 Low June 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: 132.40 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.31

*SUP 1: 132.30 Low Aug 1

*SUP 2: 132.23 Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support

*SUP 3: 132.09 Hourly support July 28

*SUP 4: 132.01 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA is now capping which is less than ideal for bulls given

the Bollinger top (132.36) recently limiting follow through. Bulls look for a

close above 132.48 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and focus on 132.85-133.01

where the falling daily TL is noted. The 132.23-30 support region is key today.

Bears need a close below 132.23 to ease bullish pressure and below 132.01 to

shift focus back 131.65-82.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) 112.095 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 3: 112.180 High June 14 

*RES 2: 112.160 Daily Bull channel top, 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 112.140 21-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.100

*SUP 1: 112.095 Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 112.050 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.030 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 112.020 Low July 28

*COMMENTARY: Closes above the 100-DMA provided the catalyst for a break higher

that sees bulls focused on layers of resistance 112.140/230. Daily studies at

O/B levels and the Bollinger top (112.130) remain key concerns for bulls with

potential to limit follow through. Initial support is noted at 112.095 with

bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to

112.010-050 where the bull channel base and key DMAs are situated.

GILT TECHS: (U17) 125.62 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 126.93 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 126.84 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 126.67 High July 24 

*RES 1: 126.54 High July 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 126.08

*SUP 1: 125.80 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 125.62 High July 17 now support 

*SUP 3: 124.95 Low July 14 

*SUP 4: 124.71 Low July 7

*COMMENTARY: Despite hesitation continuing ahead of 126.54-93, bulls take

comfort in support emerging on dips below the 21-DMA. The 125.62 support is key

today with bears needing a close below to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bull

channel base (125.67), shifting focus back to 124.71-95. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift higher in focus with above

127.20 targeting 127.66-128.68.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 99.620 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: 99.610 High July 27 & 28

*RES 2: 99.588 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.580 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.570

*SUP 1: 99.570 Repeated daily lows

*SUP 2: 99.560 Low July 20

*SUP 3: 99.557 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.540 200-DMA, Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/B daily studies are weighing with bearish pressure

resulting in closes below the 100-DMA. The close below the 100-DMA confirms a

shift in focus to 99.535-560 where 21 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel base are

situated. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to their case.

Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above 99.610

to reconfirm a bullish bias initially targeting 99.650.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below Channel Base

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.305 - 2017 High June 14 & 22 

*RES 2: 100.300 - High July 25 

*RES 1: 100.295 - Repeated Daily Highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.285 - Low July 25 - 28

*SUP 2: 100.276 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.272 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 100.253 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite O/B daily studies correcting, bears have failed to manage a

break of 100.285. Bears need a close below 100.285 to ease bullish pressure and

signal a correction back to 100.272-277 where 21 & 55-DMAs and the daily bull

channel base are situated. While 100.285 supports bulls retain the upper hand

and focus on a break of 100.305 needed to target the 100.330-360 region. The

Bollinger top and O/B studies remain the key concerns for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 125-290 & 126-120 Levels Key

*RES 4: 126-190 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 126-120 - High July 21 & 24 

*RES 2: 126-080 - High Aug 1 

*RES 1: 126-040 - Hourly resistance Aug 2

*PRICE: 126-040 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-010 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 125-290 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support

*SUP 3: 125-210 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 4: 125-150 - Low July 25

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the key 126-120 resistance is a concern with

double daily tops now in place at 126-080 & 126-120. Bulls still need a close

above 126-120 to reconfirm the bullish bias and shift focus to 126-290/127-080

where WMAs and 2017 highs are located. Bears continue to look for a close below

125-290 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 125-070/150 where the

100-DMA (125-130) is located.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.285 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 2.348 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 3: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 2: 2.321 - High Aug 1

*RES 1: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.259 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.243 - Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 3: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24 

*SUP 4: 2.228 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield is finding support on dips below the 55-DMA (2.246) which

is a concern for bears who need a close below the 200-WMA to confirm focus on

tests of 2017 lows. Resistance layers remain with bulls needing a close above

2.285 to gain breathing room and above 2.337 to see pressure back on 2.348-396

where the bear channel top and July highs are located. Overall a close above

2.437 is needed to focus on 2017 highs.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3508.90-3555.37 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: 3520.45 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 3508.90 Hourly support July 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3490.49 High Aug 1 

*RES 1: 3466.11 Hourly support Aug 2 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3459.32

*SUP 1: 3447.73 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: 3434.72 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 3431.19 Low July 24 

*SUP 4: 3407.33 Monthly Low Apr 19

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA continues with follow through above

the 21-DMA (3483.21) lacking. Broad sideways trading 3431.19-3555.37 continues

with the 3508.90-3555.37 resistance region key. Bulls need a close above 3555.37

to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top and shift initial

focus to 3615.06. While 3508.9 caps bears focus on a break of 3431.19 targeting

3390.04-44 where the channel base is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]