MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

4 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) 21-DMA Support Now Key

*RES 4: 165.93 Monthly High Apr 18

*RES 3: 165.69 High Aug 29

*RES 2: 165.31 High Aug 30

*RES 1: 164.92 Hourly resistance Sept 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 164.77

*SUP 1: 164.52 Low Sept 1

*SUP 2: 164.36 Low Aug 25

*SUP 3: 164.33 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 164.00 Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Tuesday resulted in a sell-off

that broke the daily bull channel base and sees immediate pressure now on

164.33-52 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA

to add weight to the case for a test of 163.16-44 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

located. Bulls now need a close above 154.85 to gain breathing room and above

165.31 to return focus to 165.69-93.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Channel Base Supporting

*RES 4: 133.60 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 133.36 High Aug 29 

*RES 2: 133.35 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 133.24 High Aug 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 133.08

*SUP 1: 133.04 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 2: 132.99 Low Sept 1

*SUP 3: 132.94 Low Aug 28

*SUP 4: 132.84 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Friday again leaves the contract looking a little

heavy with the 132.94-133.04 support key. Daily studies looking to correct from

O/B increase the risk of a correction with bears needing a close below 132.94 to

confirm a break of the channel base and shift initial focus back to 132.65-84

where the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls still need a close above 132.24 to end

correction talk and retain focus on the channel top.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 112.240

*RES 4: 112.360 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.300 High Apr 24 now support 

*RES 2: 112.297 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.290 Monthly High May 30, High Aug 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.270

*SUP 1: 112.240 Low Aug 30, Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 112.215 Low Aug 28 

*SUP 3: 112.190 Low Aug 25 

*SUP 4: 112.187 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Since sideways trading 112.130-190 ended the contract has attracted

support on dips. Bears continue to look for a close below 112.240 to confirm an

easing of bullish pressure and below 112.215 to shift immediate pressure to

112.175-190 where the 21-DMA is located. Overall below 112.130 is needed to

target 112.054-073. While 112.240 supports immediate focus remains on

112.290-360. O/B studies and the Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 21-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: 127.83 High Aug 29 

*RES 3: 127.71 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 127.54 High Aug 30 

*RES 1: 127.44 High Sept 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 126.98

*SUP 1: 126.90 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 126.80 Low Aug 24 

*SUP 3: 126.71 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 126.49 Low Aug 23

*COMMENTARY: Lower daily highs and lows the latter part of last week are

weighing with a dip below the bull channel base Friday and focus now on the

21-DMA. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and to shift focus to 125.94-126.49 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

Bulls look for a close above 127.54 to return focus to 127.83-128.05 where the

bull channel top it noted.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 99.680-713

*RES 4: 99.713 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 2: 99.660 High Aug 29 & 31

*RES 1: 99.658 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.650

*SUP 1: 99.640 Low Aug 29 & 31

*SUP 2: 99.638 21-DMA, Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 4: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.630-650 came to an end Tuesday with fresh 2mth

highs reconfirming the bullish bias and seeing bulls focused on 99.680-713 where

the bull channel top is noted. Layers of support remain with bears needing a

close below 99.630 to ease bullish pressure and below 99.610 to pressure 55

(99.586) & 100 (99.600) DMAs. The Bollinger top remains the key concern for

bulls.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 100.300

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.322 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.320 - 2017 High Sept 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.306 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16

*SUP 3: 100.288 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows July & Aug

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 100.315 took its toll with fresh 2017 and 11mth highs

that add support to the case for a test of the 100.330-370 resistance region.

The Bollinger top is the key concern and currently limits follow through. Layers

of support remain with bears needing a close below 100.300 to ease bullish

pressure and below 100.285 to signal a correction that initially targets the

100-DMA (100.276). While 100.300 supports bull continue to target 100.330-370.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Bulls Need Close Above 127-060

*RES 4: 127-200 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 127-190 - 2017 High Aug 29 

*RES 2: 127-090 - High Aug 31 

*RES 1: 127-060 - Hourly resistance Sept 4

*PRICE: 127-040 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-280 - Low Sept 1

*SUP 2: 126-250 - Hourly support Aug 25

*SUP 3: 126-220 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 126-200 - Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the 2017

high Friday is a concern for bulls with the Bollinger top (127-120) limiting

follow through and daily studies correcting from O/B. Layers of support remain

with bears needing a close below the daily bull channel base to hint at a move

back to 125-290/126-070 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bulls now need a close

above 127-060 to gain breathing room.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.180

*RES 4: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.200 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: 2.157 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.138 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: 2.099 - Low Sept 1 

*SUP 3: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: 2.055 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls gain confidence following Friday bounce from ahead of recent

2017 lows that sees pressure back on the 2.180 resistance. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 2.180 to shift initial focus back to 2.200-2.229. Initial

support is now noted at 2.138 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure

on 2.180 and reconfirm focus on 2.055-088 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are

situated.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3412.26 

*RES 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 

*RES 3: 3478.72 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 3467.78 High Aug 23 

*RES 1: 3448.65 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3443.88

*SUP 1: 3438.41 Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: 3412.26 High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 3: 3395.03 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3373.52 Hourly support Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the close above the 200-DMA Thursday that saw

them gain breathing room but layers of resistance 3467.78-3539.48 remain key.

Bulls need a close above 3497.29 to confirm breaks of the 55-DMA and bear

channel top and to pressure 3519.04-3539.48. A close above 3539.48 is needed to

shift focus higher. Bears now need a close below 3412.26 to return focus to the

bear channel base 3340.01.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]